Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove



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Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove ( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1040.66357.248
2035.33347.010
3031.55441.288
4028.72136.541
5026.20732.823
6023.78429.219
7021.65626.152
8019.09722.993
9016.15919.191

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
160.08294.018
253.36980.301
350.15575.475
448.31871.718
546.48069.051
644.66765.492
743.49963.088
842.38360.910
941.32858.798
1040.66357.248
1139.95755.985
1239.40954.612
1338.67553.586
1438.10452.569
1537.62251.464
1637.16050.597
1736.62049.593
1836.19948.582
1935.82047.700
2035.33347.010
2134.93646.348
2234.53845.615
2334.09145.106
2433.66144.367
2533.27043.907
2632.84443.512
2732.60942.912
2832.27142.438
2931.88941.890
3031.55441.288
3131.30940.740
3230.96040.185
3330.71739.749
3430.40339.319
3530.07438.732
3629.75338.264
3729.48237.797
3829.24737.363
3928.97137.008
4028.72136.541
4128.40736.090
4228.12135.756
4327.87335.475
4427.60535.089
4527.34734.743
4627.07134.355
4726.84534.004
4826.61233.545
4926.39433.198
5026.20732.823
5125.99432.482
5225.74632.141
5325.50331.741
5425.28531.359
5525.00330.970
5624.76530.499
5724.56030.220
5824.28729.937
5923.99829.627
6023.78429.219
6123.57528.811
6223.36428.512
6323.13828.233
6422.90827.889
6522.74827.620
6622.53427.345
6722.36027.087
6822.15426.750
6921.90826.403
7021.65626.152
7121.45525.807
7221.20025.529
7320.97925.202
7420.70424.908
7520.44624.581
7620.16124.287
7719.89723.964
7819.59523.664
7919.34423.375
8019.09722.993
8118.81822.631
8218.57522.283
8318.28121.884
8418.00221.547
8517.66821.251
8617.34120.848
8717.03920.427
8816.79020.083
8916.46019.665
9016.15919.191
9115.65018.739
9215.15618.194
9314.62717.597
9414.08316.842
9513.57616.280
9612.84415.608
9711.93514.567
9811.13713.598
999.64812.353


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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