Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


  • Jan

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Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove ( Jan 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1032.56243.621
2029.35936.024
3027.05131.619
4025.27127.888
5023.62424.923
6022.14622.020
7020.58519.530
8018.85916.952
9016.63113.839

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.24267.609
239.94459.261
338.03656.158
436.66953.679
535.62351.886
634.73949.451
734.11847.779
833.57346.243
933.03244.737
1032.56243.621
1132.11642.705
1231.78441.702
1331.37540.948
1431.07040.197
1530.77139.376
1630.47438.729
1730.12737.977
1829.84037.215
1929.60336.548
2029.35936.024
2129.09935.520
2228.85334.961
2328.54034.570
2428.29434.003
2528.06733.649
2627.89033.344
2727.68832.881
2827.47832.513
2927.26132.087
3027.05131.619
3126.87031.192
3226.67930.758
3326.47530.417
3426.26130.080
3526.10929.618
3625.94529.250
3725.77928.882
3825.60728.539
3925.47728.258
4025.27127.888
4125.12427.530
4224.94327.265
4324.78127.042
4424.62026.735
4524.41526.459
4624.27626.149
4724.13725.869
4823.96725.502
4923.78725.224
5023.62424.923
5123.49024.650
5223.33524.376
5323.15924.055
5423.03523.747
5522.88023.434
5622.75523.054
5722.60422.829
5822.46722.601
5922.29922.350
6022.14622.020
6122.00221.689
6221.84121.447
6321.66221.221
6421.50520.942
6521.39120.724
6621.26020.500
6721.07120.291
6820.90620.017
6920.73819.734
7020.58519.530
7120.43119.249
7220.29019.023
7320.13018.756
7419.96318.516
7519.78318.249
7619.58118.009
7719.42317.746
7819.25017.501
7919.04417.264
8018.85916.952
8118.60516.656
8218.37916.372
8318.21316.045
8417.98415.769
8517.75715.527
8617.51815.197
8717.32914.852
8817.12314.570
8916.89814.227
9016.63113.839
9116.25013.469
9215.95613.022
9315.69012.532
9415.26311.914
9514.78811.454
9614.35410.904
9713.72210.052
9812.9699.261
9911.8428.246


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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