Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove



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Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.92743.621
2019.48136.024
3017.77431.619
4016.43327.888
5015.25124.923
6014.19422.020
7013.11719.530
8011.84316.952
9010.22113.839

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
129.63967.609
227.60859.261
325.89656.158
424.87053.679
524.13051.886
623.44449.451
722.91047.779
822.55746.243
922.26144.737
1021.92743.621
1121.60042.705
1221.29041.702
1321.05940.948
1420.78340.197
1520.58439.376
1620.32438.729
1720.03937.977
1819.79537.215
1919.62936.548
2019.48136.024
2119.24235.520
2219.07834.961
2318.91934.570
2418.73034.003
2518.60933.649
2618.41133.344
2718.21132.881
2818.07332.513
2917.92132.087
3017.77431.619
3117.64031.192
3217.50130.758
3317.34030.417
3417.25130.080
3517.12629.618
3617.00529.250
3716.85528.882
3816.70028.539
3916.55328.258
4016.43327.888
4116.32527.530
4216.20927.265
4316.07027.042
4415.95226.735
4515.83626.459
4615.70426.149
4715.58925.869
4815.47725.502
4915.38725.224
5015.25124.923
5115.14824.650
5215.06224.376
5314.95424.055
5414.84123.747
5514.71923.434
5614.61523.054
5714.51722.829
5814.40922.601
5914.30422.350
6014.19422.020
6114.08721.689
6213.96621.447
6313.85221.221
6413.74720.942
6513.65920.724
6613.56520.500
6713.46920.291
6813.34220.017
6913.23119.734
7013.11719.530
7112.98119.249
7212.86519.023
7312.73518.756
7412.60718.516
7512.48518.249
7612.36718.009
7712.24917.746
7812.14117.501
7912.01617.264
8011.84316.952
8111.72216.656
8211.56616.372
8311.41716.045
8411.26115.769
8511.13215.527
8610.97515.197
8710.80214.852
8810.63214.570
8910.46414.227
9010.22113.839
9110.02313.469
929.78313.022
939.55912.532
949.25311.914
958.96311.454
968.64410.904
978.27410.052
987.6669.261
996.8258.246


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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