Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove



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Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1041.64543.621
2037.79736.024
3035.03931.619
4032.89627.888
5030.86524.923
6028.98322.020
7027.13819.530
8024.94716.952
9022.13113.839

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
154.47467.609
250.55859.261
348.10256.158
446.60453.679
545.38151.886
644.35349.451
743.55947.779
842.87246.243
942.21844.737
1041.64543.621
1141.09842.705
1240.61441.702
1340.18040.948
1439.74740.197
1539.49139.376
1639.14438.729
1738.76937.977
1838.42637.215
1938.12036.548
2037.79736.024
2137.48135.520
2237.09034.961
2336.81034.570
2436.59334.003
2536.34433.649
2636.08833.344
2735.82832.881
2835.59932.513
2935.30132.087
3035.03931.619
3134.73831.192
3234.51630.758
3334.33130.417
3434.10830.080
3533.88529.618
3633.68129.250
3733.44328.882
3833.22828.539
3933.06528.258
4032.89627.888
4132.69427.530
4232.49327.265
4332.29827.042
4432.12026.735
4531.91026.459
4631.71726.149
4731.48425.869
4831.24825.502
4931.07525.224
5030.86524.923
5130.68924.650
5230.50824.376
5330.29224.055
5430.12023.747
5529.91223.434
5629.72823.054
5729.58622.829
5829.41422.601
5929.21222.350
6028.98322.020
6128.80821.689
6228.62621.447
6328.46721.221
6428.31020.942
6528.10220.724
6627.91220.500
6727.72220.291
6827.51720.017
6927.33719.734
7027.13819.530
7126.92119.249
7226.72419.023
7326.51718.756
7426.29518.516
7526.07718.249
7625.82818.009
7725.58917.746
7825.40917.501
7925.18417.264
8024.94716.952
8124.66816.656
8224.41116.372
8324.13816.045
8423.82515.769
8523.56215.527
8623.31215.197
8723.10614.852
8822.82714.570
8922.47414.227
9022.13113.839
9121.77713.469
9221.39813.022
9320.89512.532
9420.43111.914
9519.93411.454
9619.39510.904
9718.52410.052
9817.5159.261
9916.0168.246


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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