Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove



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Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove ( Jan 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1030.53243.621
2027.52036.024
3025.29531.619
4023.60527.888
5022.05124.923
6020.62622.020
7019.15019.530
8017.52416.952
9015.41313.839

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.57967.609
237.55659.261
335.73656.158
434.44053.679
533.44551.886
632.66149.451
732.08947.779
831.49146.243
930.96044.737
1030.53243.621
1130.12042.705
1229.76041.702
1329.44740.948
1429.12940.197
1528.82439.376
1628.57138.729
1728.24237.977
1827.95337.215
1927.75236.548
2027.52036.024
2127.27235.520
2226.97434.961
2326.71034.570
2426.46134.003
2526.28033.649
2626.10233.344
2725.90932.881
2825.71032.513
2925.49532.087
3025.29531.619
3125.10131.192
3224.91230.758
3324.74730.417
3424.57230.080
3524.40129.618
3624.25829.250
3724.12028.882
3823.93828.539
3923.79828.258
4023.60527.888
4123.44427.530
4223.25027.265
4323.12627.042
4422.98126.735
4522.79126.459
4622.64926.149
4722.49025.869
4822.34225.502
4922.19225.224
5022.05124.923
5121.89524.650
5221.73124.376
5321.61624.055
5421.47223.747
5521.32223.434
5621.20923.054
5721.09222.829
5820.95022.601
5920.76322.350
6020.62622.020
6120.48921.689
6220.33921.447
6320.20121.221
6420.06220.942
6519.91120.724
6619.77320.500
6719.61720.291
6819.44820.017
6919.30619.734
7019.15019.530
7119.03019.249
7218.87419.023
7318.72318.756
7418.55518.516
7518.39818.249
7618.21018.009
7718.06217.746
7817.87417.501
7917.69317.264
8017.52416.952
8117.28316.656
8217.08416.372
8316.91416.045
8416.72115.769
8516.52615.527
8616.28015.197
8716.05314.852
8815.86414.570
8915.70914.227
9015.41313.839
9115.05513.469
9214.76713.022
9314.51112.532
9414.12811.914
9513.68111.454
9613.27510.904
9712.70710.052
9811.9919.261
9910.7478.246


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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