Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile45.03640.899
Median56.51855.962
Mean58.51560.554
75% Quartile69.99575.324
Interquartile Range24.95934.425

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1111.750143.722
2103.427127.923
398.830121.898
495.474117.022
592.791113.458
690.203108.565
788.146105.170
886.136102.028
984.56098.921
1083.36596.604
1182.35294.691
1281.20192.589
1380.01391.000
1478.56389.412
1577.69987.671
1676.66186.292
1775.89684.685
1875.10683.051
1974.34581.615
2073.63380.485
2172.83179.394
2272.14378.181
2371.24677.333
2470.73576.098
2570.02075.324
2669.32474.658
2768.70573.644
2868.09472.839
2967.39871.904
3066.86270.874
3166.36669.932
3265.72468.976
3365.11868.220
3464.56467.475
3564.04966.452
3663.35565.634
3762.76464.816
3862.11464.054
3961.74363.427
4061.27262.602
4160.79161.804
4260.27961.212
4359.77460.712
4459.31260.026
4558.79759.408
4658.36358.715
4757.87858.085
4857.49057.262
4956.98556.638
5056.51855.962
5156.18255.347
5255.72754.731
5355.23554.008
5454.74153.315
5554.35752.610
5654.02351.753
5753.56051.244
5853.15250.730
5952.66850.164
6052.06649.419
6151.38948.672
6250.91548.126
6350.53947.614
6450.18446.983
6549.75546.490
6649.30045.985
6748.84845.512
6848.37344.893
6947.92444.253
7047.45243.791
7146.88343.156
7246.40742.645
7346.03342.043
7445.46841.501
7545.03540.898
7644.61740.355
7744.13739.760
7843.52339.207
7942.95238.674
8042.40337.970
8141.71637.303
8241.18236.662
8340.41735.927
8439.74935.305
8539.26334.760
8638.56134.019
8737.78033.245
8836.98832.613
8936.34431.845
9035.69530.976
9134.98830.150
9234.07029.153
9333.29228.064
9432.32526.692
9531.02125.675
9629.64924.461
9727.94522.593
9825.80820.867
9922.96318.672


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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