Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile54.57543.016
Median68.67259.799
Mean71.53164.092
75% Quartile86.11380.670
Interquartile Range31.53837.654

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1139.904147.775
2128.946132.977
3122.462127.248
4117.993122.571
5113.948119.128
6110.523114.365
7108.125111.034
8105.507107.931
9103.725104.843
10102.343102.527
11101.023100.606
1299.54898.486
1398.40996.876
1496.83095.262
1595.35693.485
1694.42692.072
1793.58190.420
1892.39688.734
1991.41587.247
2090.47686.073
2189.46484.936
2288.73483.669
2387.81782.781
2486.95981.484
2586.11680.670
2685.18879.968
2784.49178.897
2883.65278.044
2982.78077.051
3082.10475.956
3181.23274.952
3280.35373.930
3379.71673.121
3479.01372.322
3578.24571.222
3677.51070.340
3777.03369.458
3876.34168.634
3975.59767.955
4074.80467.060
4174.17066.193
4273.59665.548
4372.85765.004
4472.27364.255
4571.70763.580
4670.98262.822
4770.44562.132
4869.72961.229
4969.17660.543
5068.67259.799
5168.10759.122
5267.64058.442
5367.21557.644
5466.57056.877
5565.85156.097
5665.30855.146
5764.76054.583
5864.21654.011
5963.62353.382
6063.01852.552
6162.42251.721
6261.80651.111
6361.32550.540
6460.78849.835
6560.25649.285
6659.73648.720
6759.23348.191
6858.81547.497
6958.21046.781
7057.54246.263
7157.05645.551
7256.55644.977
7355.87744.301
7455.14543.693
7554.57543.015
7653.93842.405
7753.39441.737
7852.78641.115
7952.02540.516
8051.24239.724
8150.56238.973
8249.78138.252
8349.07437.425
8448.43136.726
8547.78836.114
8647.28135.281
8745.98434.411
8845.14133.701
8944.30832.839
9043.24031.864
9142.48730.938
9241.43129.823
9339.98928.606
9439.00627.077
9537.28325.945
9635.77924.600
9734.07322.537
9831.62220.643
9928.01018.253


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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