Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


Return to catchment list
Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile42.09139.845
Median54.62055.935
Mean56.87461.981
75% Quartile69.02177.605
Interquartile Range26.92937.760

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1114.171161.791
2105.381141.501
3100.804133.871
496.924127.747
593.730123.299
691.082117.239
788.941113.064
887.548109.224
985.815105.451
1084.096102.652
1182.490100.351
1281.28097.834
1380.21795.938
1479.06494.051
1577.85591.989
1677.02290.362
1776.15488.472
1875.31086.557
1974.35384.881
2073.27583.566
2172.39282.300
2271.37780.896
2370.51179.917
2469.77978.495
2569.02777.606
2668.33376.842
2767.68175.682
2867.00574.763
2966.42273.698
3065.82472.528
3165.13671.460
3264.26570.379
3363.60869.526
3463.01968.688
3562.45267.539
3661.94266.622
3761.37065.708
3860.70164.857
3960.16564.159
4059.68663.242
4159.20862.357
4258.66561.701
4358.21361.149
4457.79160.392
4557.28259.711
4656.69258.949
4756.24258.258
4855.63957.356
4955.06556.673
5054.62055.935
5154.03655.265
5253.57454.595
5353.10353.810
5452.64253.059
5552.26852.296
5651.66851.371
5751.23150.824
5850.74250.270
5950.32649.662
6049.88548.863
6149.31048.065
6248.79347.481
6348.22646.935
6447.78846.263
6547.30245.739
6646.88245.203
6746.54444.702
6846.00844.046
6945.42843.370
7044.82542.883
7144.26742.214
7243.64641.676
7343.07741.044
7442.60240.476
7542.08639.844
7641.52839.277
7740.87238.657
7840.27238.081
7939.77337.526
8039.18436.795
8138.50736.103
8237.93135.440
8337.27434.682
8436.71034.041
8536.00033.481
8635.21432.720
8734.52531.927
8833.94731.281
8933.14730.497
9032.58329.613
9131.86528.774
9231.02527.765
9330.18726.665
9428.61525.286
9527.27324.266
9626.06023.053
9724.62921.197
9822.71519.491
9920.11017.336


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence