Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile36.90734.554
Median46.70648.380
Mean49.19555.076
75% Quartile59.22367.830
Interquartile Range22.31533.276

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
199.950163.876
291.676136.540
388.053127.087
484.254119.793
580.906114.648
678.272107.832
776.803103.262
875.03099.142
973.64195.169
1072.33692.268
1171.11489.913
1269.97287.363
1368.89085.462
1468.06983.585
1566.93581.552
1665.94379.960
1764.89678.124
1863.98776.279
1963.19974.675
2062.42673.424
2161.69372.225
2261.14370.903
2360.43569.985
2459.75468.657
2559.22567.831
2658.55867.123
2757.93466.051
2857.27365.205
2956.53564.227
3055.86263.158
3155.45862.186
3254.93161.204
3354.42060.432
3453.88159.675
3553.13758.641
3652.61057.819
3752.12357.001
3851.66756.242
3951.18955.620
4050.77254.805
4150.32954.020
4249.85453.440
4349.56452.953
4449.03652.285
4548.63551.685
4648.24351.016
4747.90050.410
4847.51249.620
4947.04249.023
5046.70648.380
5146.41847.796
5246.02647.213
5345.66346.531
5445.29045.880
5544.94145.220
5644.56644.420
5744.16443.947
5843.71443.470
5943.30742.946
6042.95042.259
6142.65441.572
6242.22141.071
6341.80240.603
6441.31440.028
6540.95039.579
6640.56139.121
6740.17538.692
6839.68838.132
6939.23737.555
7038.84037.139
7138.47436.570
7238.14336.112
7337.82935.573
7437.35735.090
7536.89434.553
7636.41034.072
7736.03233.545
7835.55133.056
7935.10432.585
8034.57831.965
8134.13331.379
8233.55330.817
8333.14730.174
8432.66429.631
8532.07929.157
8631.53228.513
8730.97727.842
8830.42127.295
8929.83326.631
9029.23125.883
9128.52625.172
9227.78224.318
9326.95623.386
9426.17122.216
9525.21621.350
9624.02220.320
9723.02718.739
9821.50217.282
9918.91415.436


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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