Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile23.78829.124
Median30.07539.566
Mean32.07544.111
75% Quartile38.78653.856
Interquartile Range14.99824.732

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
169.969120.694
262.851102.117
358.99895.625
456.04290.589
553.87487.022
652.07382.276
750.68379.080
849.42576.189
948.45273.392
1047.87471.343
1146.99969.676
1246.12567.867
1345.41966.516
1444.39865.179
1543.74863.729
1643.25562.590
1742.60261.276
1842.09359.952
1941.49358.799
2041.02157.899
2140.47857.035
2239.99356.080
2339.54855.416
2439.13154.455
2538.78853.857
2638.40153.343
2737.97252.565
2837.55951.949
2937.14651.238
3036.69150.458
3136.29449.749
3235.95049.031
3335.52048.467
3435.17147.912
3534.91847.154
3634.62446.550
3734.26945.949
3833.84545.390
3933.54644.932
4033.21844.332
4132.95543.752
4232.57043.323
4332.31542.963
4432.04542.468
4531.71442.024
4631.38641.527
4731.06841.077
4830.75540.490
4930.39340.046
5030.07539.566
5129.81939.131
5229.58838.696
5329.30038.186
5429.06937.699
5528.75237.204
5628.51536.604
5728.28436.249
5828.00335.890
5927.80635.496
6027.60234.978
6127.35634.461
6227.09334.082
6326.84533.728
6426.58533.293
6526.33232.953
6626.05232.606
6725.78232.280
6825.50531.855
6925.23531.416
7025.00431.099
7124.78630.665
7224.52030.316
7324.27929.904
7424.03729.535
7523.78529.123
7623.42928.754
7723.14028.350
7822.77927.974
7922.39627.612
8022.06327.134
8121.73126.681
8221.45026.247
8321.13425.749
8420.89925.328
8520.57624.960
8620.16824.459
8719.74123.936
8819.32123.509
8918.84122.990
9018.46022.403
9118.02221.845
9217.48021.172
9317.09520.436
9416.52519.508
9515.90318.819
9615.14517.997
9714.26416.727
9813.13515.550
9911.40614.046


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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