Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile31.14034.554
Median39.71348.380
Mean41.87355.076
75% Quartile50.49367.830
Interquartile Range19.35333.276

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
188.821163.876
279.430136.540
374.941127.087
471.843119.793
569.409114.648
667.450107.832
765.667103.262
864.01899.142
962.79095.169
1061.43892.268
1160.48989.913
1259.51087.363
1358.61685.462
1457.86683.585
1557.07881.552
1656.28279.960
1755.60778.124
1854.78176.279
1953.99374.675
2053.42573.424
2152.87872.225
2252.35170.903
2351.61869.985
2450.99668.657
2550.49867.831
2649.97767.123
2749.47966.051
2848.94565.205
2948.37764.227
3047.75763.158
3147.32362.186
3246.82561.204
3346.39860.432
3445.87259.675
3545.38958.641
3644.90757.819
3744.53257.001
3844.18456.242
3943.74155.620
4043.35454.805
4142.94554.020
4242.59653.440
4342.27352.953
4441.92752.285
4541.51251.685
4641.16951.016
4740.84950.410
4840.45649.620
4940.09049.023
5039.71348.380
5139.35647.796
5238.94547.213
5338.60646.531
5438.24845.880
5537.84845.220
5637.56944.420
5737.27543.947
5836.96743.470
5936.65442.946
6036.32542.259
6136.03341.572
6235.69841.071
6335.28640.603
6434.96040.028
6534.62439.579
6634.33139.121
6733.95838.692
6833.64838.132
6933.31837.555
7032.89737.139
7132.44436.570
7232.15236.112
7331.83935.573
7431.45435.090
7531.13534.553
7630.80334.072
7730.39433.545
7830.10833.056
7929.69132.585
8029.29131.965
8128.81031.379
8228.37830.817
8328.00830.174
8427.62729.631
8527.08729.157
8626.59228.513
8726.08027.842
8825.58327.295
8925.03526.631
9024.49025.883
9124.07125.172
9223.40624.318
9322.75323.386
9422.09522.216
9521.24721.350
9620.33020.320
9719.21218.739
9817.89917.282
9915.76315.436


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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