Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove



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Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile16.00318.029
Median19.50724.614
Mean20.27126.129
75% Quartile23.93032.630
Interquartile Range7.92714.600

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
137.78457.821
235.00952.302
333.42350.162
432.20848.413
531.19047.125
630.39545.341
729.79044.092
829.13342.927
928.61941.767
1028.16040.896
1127.81440.173
1227.36239.375
1326.93638.768
1426.66538.159
1526.39237.488
1626.11736.954
1725.84836.329
1825.60735.691
1925.37535.128
2025.13134.683
2124.93134.251
2224.72733.770
2324.41133.433
2424.13132.940
2523.93032.630
2623.74532.363
2723.52331.954
2823.33631.629
2923.08231.251
3022.88230.833
3122.74030.449
3222.59030.058
3322.41029.748
3422.19029.442
3522.01529.020
3621.82428.682
3721.62528.343
3821.40228.027
3921.24027.765
4021.10027.421
4120.93827.087
4220.80126.838
4320.64926.629
4420.50626.339
4520.28926.079
4620.14425.785
4719.98325.519
4819.82025.169
4919.65224.903
5019.50724.614
5119.38724.352
5219.28524.087
5319.12523.777
5418.97723.479
5518.84223.175
5618.68522.804
5718.56422.584
5818.42322.360
5918.28522.114
6018.17221.790
6118.03521.464
6217.87221.225
6317.71521.000
6417.58020.724
6517.43820.507
6617.25320.285
6717.11820.076
6816.99519.803
6916.86519.520
7016.74819.316
7116.64619.034
7216.49318.807
7316.33018.539
7416.17518.298
7516.00218.029
7615.82417.787
7715.65717.521
7815.50317.273
7915.34017.034
8015.11316.718
8114.96016.418
8214.77316.130
8314.61215.798
8414.39715.518
8514.21115.272
8614.02014.937
8713.80314.586
8813.58614.300
8913.27913.952
9013.03113.557
9112.75313.182
9212.50612.728
9312.17712.232
9411.73911.608
9511.34811.144
9610.82110.591
9710.4129.740
989.6448.955
998.8487.960


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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