Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove



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Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile33.19735.166
Median41.28447.581
Mean43.06852.895
75% Quartile50.95964.500
Interquartile Range17.76329.334

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
184.730142.994
277.699121.257
374.238113.649
471.572107.742
568.783103.555
666.74897.981
765.19994.224
863.95490.825
962.70787.534
1061.64485.123
1160.43983.160
1259.64481.030
1358.53479.438
1457.79577.862
1556.92976.153
1656.21174.811
1755.64773.260
1854.91971.698
1954.34270.338
2053.74569.274
2153.07568.254
2252.54967.127
2351.89966.343
2451.33565.208
2550.96464.500
2650.46863.893
2750.11362.973
2849.59562.246
2949.11761.405
3048.74760.483
3148.33159.644
3247.91458.795
3347.55058.127
3447.13857.471
3546.74056.573
3646.29155.858
3745.85955.147
3845.40754.485
3945.03253.942
4044.69153.231
4144.39752.544
4244.11052.036
4343.76051.608
4443.41251.022
4543.10650.495
4642.76049.906
4742.33549.373
4841.93648.676
4941.56348.150
5041.28447.581
5140.91747.064
5240.58746.547
5340.21345.942
5439.89645.364
5539.50344.777
5639.18744.064
5738.89643.642
5838.63643.216
5938.34242.748
6038.04942.132
6137.68641.517
6237.39541.067
6337.08540.646
6436.82440.128
6536.48139.725
6636.23539.311
6735.90238.924
6835.64738.417
6935.29937.895
7034.92037.519
7134.61737.001
7234.17736.585
7333.84536.095
7433.49935.656
7533.19635.166
7632.78534.725
7732.43934.243
7832.06833.795
7931.70833.364
8031.26132.794
8130.82132.254
8230.38731.736
8329.99931.142
8429.62630.640
8529.13430.200
8628.66029.602
8728.20928.977
8827.70028.468
8927.17727.847
9026.73827.146
9126.10526.478
9225.54325.673
9324.73924.792
9424.00023.682
9523.21822.856
9622.43821.870
9721.08820.347
9819.59218.934
9917.55617.126


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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