Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove



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Probability distribution for Latrobe River at Willow Grove ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile22.71818.250
Median27.01624.923
Mean27.67727.198
75% Quartile31.95633.648
Interquartile Range9.23815.399

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
148.46667.609
244.87759.261
342.64356.158
441.24153.679
540.28851.886
639.16849.451
738.50247.779
837.86846.243
937.31644.737
1036.84043.621
1136.31142.705
1235.85241.702
1335.52840.948
1435.19040.197
1534.83039.376
1634.52738.729
1734.20837.977
1833.92437.215
1933.56736.548
2033.27836.024
2133.01635.520
2232.69434.961
2332.45234.570
2432.18534.003
2531.95933.649
2631.67633.344
2731.50032.881
2831.26332.513
2931.05132.087
3030.78231.619
3130.59031.192
3230.34430.758
3330.15030.417
3429.90330.080
3529.71629.618
3629.54129.250
3729.35928.882
3829.18228.539
3929.00728.258
4028.82527.888
4128.66327.530
4228.47527.265
4328.31027.042
4428.10826.735
4527.94326.459
4627.76526.149
4727.53425.869
4827.36125.502
4927.18925.224
5027.01624.923
5126.84524.650
5226.68824.376
5326.50024.055
5426.33423.747
5526.17223.434
5626.01723.054
5725.88022.829
5825.69822.601
5925.53122.350
6025.36922.020
6125.14421.689
6224.99221.447
6324.82521.221
6424.66420.942
6524.51820.724
6624.34320.500
6724.21320.291
6823.98620.017
6923.80819.734
7023.65419.530
7123.43419.249
7223.29019.023
7323.13318.756
7422.93418.516
7522.70918.249
7622.47418.009
7722.30717.746
7822.12717.501
7921.91517.264
8021.70616.952
8121.40416.656
8221.17916.372
8320.96316.045
8420.70615.769
8520.41515.527
8620.23215.197
8720.03314.852
8819.76014.570
8919.51114.227
9019.17213.839
9118.82413.469
9218.50813.022
9318.07912.532
9417.66011.914
9517.17411.454
9616.71310.904
9715.88210.052
9815.1559.261
9913.8278.246


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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