Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Oct21.20515.3224.45712.76035.833
Oct-Nov40.03128.7019.40025.00295.320
Oct-Dec55.16540.67213.08935.232172.508

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1071.09792.268
2061.80973.424
3055.55863.158
4050.36254.805
5046.29848.380
6042.26242.259
7038.58337.139
8034.33631.965
9028.86525.883

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1101.343163.876
291.096136.540
386.167127.087
482.735119.793
579.814114.648
677.697107.832
775.919103.262
874.30399.142
972.64095.169
1071.09792.268
1169.93689.913
1268.93787.363
1367.83285.462
1466.99883.585
1566.00681.552
1665.25479.960
1764.40378.124
1863.25176.279
1962.53974.675
2061.80973.424
2161.17172.225
2260.48270.903
2359.89969.985
2459.24968.657
2558.72767.831
2658.06967.123
2757.44466.051
2856.89665.205
2956.27364.227
3055.55863.158
3155.01762.186
3254.53461.204
3353.87660.432
3453.29259.675
3552.82258.641
3652.31157.819
3751.82257.001
3851.27856.242
3950.79255.620
4050.36254.805
4149.99454.020
4249.58953.440
4349.15552.953
4448.70952.285
4548.37351.685
4647.94151.016
4747.51950.410
4847.11449.620
4946.74849.023
5046.29848.380
5145.95647.796
5245.53847.213
5345.09846.531
5444.64245.880
5544.15945.220
5643.76644.420
5743.33343.947
5842.99443.470
5942.63342.946
6042.26242.259
6141.82141.572
6241.46841.071
6341.13440.603
6440.68640.028
6540.34039.579
6639.94539.121
6739.67938.692
6839.37738.132
6939.03337.555
7038.58337.139
7138.14636.570
7237.69236.112
7337.33935.573
7436.98335.090
7536.50434.553
7635.97034.072
7735.58933.545
7835.21433.056
7934.83332.585
8034.33631.965
8133.89831.379
8233.36930.817
8332.77130.174
8432.28329.631
8531.87629.157
8631.14528.513
8730.61227.842
8830.07927.295
8929.49726.631
9028.86525.883
9128.36325.172
9227.65524.318
9326.67323.386
9426.01422.216
9525.14921.350
9624.13820.320
9722.59018.739
9821.22517.282
9919.06715.436


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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