Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Nov18.99321.09613.9914.94312.03059.487
Nov-Dec34.24638.64324.8528.63221.720136.675
Nov-Jan44.94249.94131.21111.83027.998166.304

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1060.40474.066
2053.23459.011
3048.16150.808
4044.30244.132
5040.93438.995
6037.74634.101
7034.68330.006
8031.37825.867
9026.95420.999

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
184.651131.246
277.187109.420
373.008101.872
470.35096.047
568.17791.939
665.86686.496
764.51482.846
862.92279.556
961.50976.383
1060.40474.066
1159.28372.184
1258.25870.147
1357.50968.629
1456.78467.129
1556.14365.505
1655.62564.233
1755.01162.767
1854.38761.292
1953.76260.011
2053.23459.011
2152.77758.054
2252.28156.997
2351.65756.264
2451.07755.203
2550.53254.542
2649.95153.977
2749.43653.120
2848.99452.444
2948.63451.663
3048.16150.808
3147.69850.031
3247.31249.246
3346.90148.630
3446.53848.025
3546.26647.198
3645.87046.541
3745.47845.887
3845.02245.280
3944.63144.783
4044.30244.132
4143.96143.505
4243.53043.041
4343.22742.651
4442.91842.117
4542.62141.638
4642.22141.103
4741.91440.618
4841.62939.987
4941.25439.510
5040.93438.995
5140.61038.529
5240.36638.062
5340.06837.517
5439.74836.996
5539.44336.469
5639.08635.829
5738.66735.451
5838.35435.069
5938.09934.651
6037.74634.101
6137.45833.552
6237.10533.151
6336.76932.777
6436.45832.316
6536.21131.958
6635.88431.591
6735.54831.248
6835.28430.800
6934.91630.339
7034.68330.006
7134.37129.550
7234.05829.184
7333.74928.753
7433.44028.367
7533.04027.938
7632.77627.552
7732.49527.131
7832.11826.739
7931.69826.363
8031.37825.867
8131.02425.398
8230.63524.948
8330.18924.434
8429.84224.000
8529.39823.620
8628.89023.105
8728.50522.567
8827.96922.130
8927.46421.599
9026.95420.999
9126.37820.431
9225.77819.747
9325.18019.001
9424.51018.064
9523.65717.371
9622.82216.546
9721.84615.280
9820.49414.113
9918.36312.634


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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