Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1960) (GL)
Apr9.6748.7675.3524.0136.34520.667
Apr-May22.12921.91812.1997.90313.70370.720
Apr-Jun36.97153.28526.18312.54124.37099.550

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1042.29257.248
2036.79547.010
3032.94441.288
4029.99036.541
5027.36932.823
6024.85129.219
7022.67626.152
8020.01922.993
9016.95519.191

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
162.11494.018
255.64380.301
352.01875.475
450.15271.718
548.25569.051
646.56065.492
745.23963.088
844.13760.910
943.06958.798
1042.29257.248
1141.58155.985
1241.00854.612
1340.25953.586
1439.70852.569
1539.18551.464
1638.66250.597
1738.13849.593
1837.69048.582
1937.27247.700
2036.79547.010
2136.33946.348
2235.95645.615
2335.54245.106
2435.10344.367
2534.65343.907
2634.29143.512
2734.00042.912
2833.63642.438
2933.26341.890
3032.94441.288
3132.63040.740
3232.32440.185
3332.00639.749
3431.71239.319
3531.38738.732
3631.02638.264
3730.72537.797
3830.52537.363
3930.23637.008
4029.99036.541
4129.67536.090
4229.38135.756
4329.11435.475
4428.83035.089
4528.56834.743
4628.26134.355
4728.03134.004
4827.77733.545
4927.54933.198
5027.36932.823
5127.11332.482
5226.86832.141
5326.64331.741
5426.36431.359
5526.11130.970
5625.85330.499
5725.66030.220
5825.40329.937
5925.09929.627
6024.85129.219
6124.62028.811
6224.40528.512
6324.17328.233
6423.97827.889
6523.76627.620
6623.59327.345
6723.36227.087
6823.15126.750
6922.94726.403
7022.67626.152
7122.45525.807
7222.18625.529
7321.92725.202
7421.65524.908
7521.40124.581
7621.09524.287
7720.85923.964
7820.54923.664
7920.24423.375
8020.01922.993
8119.72622.631
8219.45522.283
8319.15221.884
8418.86021.547
8518.50721.251
8618.20720.848
8717.86520.427
8817.55620.083
8917.26119.665
9016.95519.191
9116.40318.739
9215.92918.194
9315.37317.597
9414.77516.842
9514.25916.280
9613.53415.608
9712.58214.567
9811.68813.598
9910.25012.353


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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