Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


Return to catchment list
Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Jun14.84231.36713.9844.63810.66662.744
Jun-Jul32.74553.34923.62211.13522.500116.578
Jun-Aug53.87777.20840.96518.24836.067150.533

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1056.12285.123
2048.80769.274
3044.18460.483
4040.52353.231
5037.32047.581
6034.37542.132
7031.43037.519
8028.13132.794
9023.96327.146

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
177.736142.994
270.898121.257
367.789113.649
465.284107.742
562.614103.555
660.80197.981
759.34994.224
858.34890.825
957.13787.534
1056.12285.123
1155.11983.160
1254.24481.030
1353.37679.438
1452.49077.862
1551.82476.153
1651.16674.811
1750.49073.260
1849.99971.698
1949.35470.338
2048.80769.274
2148.23668.254
2247.66167.127
2347.18166.343
2446.61665.208
2546.19664.500
2645.84863.893
2745.35962.973
2844.96462.246
2944.59261.405
3044.18460.483
3143.81559.644
3243.46658.795
3343.10958.127
3442.79457.471
3542.41456.573
3641.97055.858
3741.52855.147
3841.16954.485
3940.81453.942
4040.52353.231
4140.25352.544
4239.88552.036
4339.58151.608
4439.27451.022
4538.94250.495
4638.60949.906
4738.27149.373
4837.97648.676
4937.63748.150
5037.32047.581
5137.02747.064
5236.71146.547
5336.40045.942
5436.04245.364
5535.73444.777
5635.47144.064
5735.20643.642
5834.90743.216
5934.62742.748
6034.37542.132
6134.04641.517
6233.74341.067
6333.48640.646
6433.23040.128
6532.94339.725
6632.65639.311
6732.34038.924
6832.07938.417
6931.76037.895
7031.43037.519
7131.21537.001
7230.87336.585
7330.59636.095
7430.24435.656
7529.86335.166
7629.52034.725
7729.16734.243
7828.86033.795
7928.46633.364
8028.13132.794
8127.74932.254
8227.34831.736
8326.93931.142
8426.58030.640
8526.21830.200
8625.73929.602
8725.26028.977
8824.86728.468
8924.40627.847
9023.96327.146
9123.41726.478
9222.84325.673
9322.09824.792
9421.34823.682
9520.82422.856
9619.95121.870
9718.70620.347
9817.42218.934
9915.60317.126


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence