Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1953) (GL)
Sep22.14124.40012.8286.25514.47834.822
Sep-Oct43.44044.30928.15010.71227.505103.091
Sep-Nov62.35358.30141.52915.65540.256157.904

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1083.152102.652
2072.53683.566
3065.11372.528
4059.19063.242
5053.99555.935
6049.48748.863
7044.69642.883
8039.14636.795
9032.55729.613

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1112.798161.791
2103.961141.501
399.014133.871
496.458127.747
593.085123.299
690.222117.239
787.869113.064
886.284109.224
984.492105.451
1083.152102.652
1181.661100.351
1280.43197.834
1379.45795.938
1478.45994.051
1577.29091.989
1676.22190.362
1775.29188.472
1874.39586.557
1973.39584.881
2072.53683.566
2171.27482.300
2270.42380.896
2369.73579.917
2468.94078.495
2568.21077.606
2667.42076.842
2766.85575.682
2866.27974.763
2965.65473.698
3065.11372.528
3164.51871.460
3264.00070.379
3363.24369.526
3462.59068.688
3561.92067.539
3661.33766.622
3760.73565.708
3860.14064.857
3959.60764.159
4059.19063.242
4158.51862.357
4257.97461.701
4357.48761.149
4457.04060.392
4556.68859.711
4656.06458.949
4755.55058.258
4855.00357.356
4954.44656.673
5053.99555.935
5153.50555.265
5253.05854.595
5352.58053.810
5452.19653.059
5551.81752.296
5651.42551.371
5750.93050.824
5850.42250.270
5949.96449.662
6049.48748.863
6149.00248.065
6248.52547.481
6348.05846.935
6447.60246.263
6547.06845.739
6646.60345.203
6746.15844.702
6845.71344.046
6945.19343.370
7044.69642.883
7144.11142.214
7243.55741.676
7343.05141.044
7442.48540.476
7541.98639.844
7641.38339.277
7740.79538.657
7840.24438.081
7939.70637.526
8039.14636.795
8138.66836.103
8238.03735.440
8337.48534.682
8437.01134.041
8536.36333.481
8635.53232.720
8734.84231.927
8834.14231.281
8933.39830.497
9032.55729.613
9131.79628.774
9231.04627.765
9330.12926.665
9429.04525.286
9527.76624.266
9626.18023.053
9724.63521.197
9823.22219.491
9920.13617.336


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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