Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove



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Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
May12.3686.8478.1553.8907.47418.762
May-Jun27.19620.83120.6568.52818.87181.506
May-Jul44.97130.46942.32215.02530.569135.340

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1054.20971.343
2046.58657.899
3041.67250.458
4037.80444.332
5034.32039.566
6031.52934.978
7028.58231.099
8025.36127.134
9021.27322.403

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
177.948120.694
270.350102.117
365.95295.625
463.06290.589
560.73887.022
658.96882.276
757.13779.080
855.80976.189
954.87473.392
1054.20971.343
1153.20869.676
1252.20567.867
1351.20766.516
1450.29265.179
1549.49563.729
1648.94462.590
1748.30861.276
1847.62159.952
1947.10558.799
2046.58657.899
2145.85657.035
2245.39356.080
2344.91255.416
2444.35654.455
2543.92253.857
2643.43053.343
2743.08952.565
2842.63851.949
2942.16751.238
3041.67250.458
3141.28549.749
3240.77249.031
3340.35648.467
3439.99547.912
3539.73447.154
3639.43146.550
3738.92345.949
3838.61445.390
3938.16144.932
4037.80444.332
4137.38643.752
4237.09343.323
4336.76542.963
4436.40842.468
4536.11142.024
4635.71941.527
4735.36441.077
4835.02840.490
4934.65440.046
5034.32039.566
5133.95839.131
5233.64438.696
5333.42138.186
5433.13437.699
5532.82637.204
5632.58636.604
5732.33836.249
5832.02335.890
5931.78035.496
6031.52934.978
6131.22034.461
6230.95434.082
6330.69333.728
6430.39033.293
6530.11032.953
6629.75032.606
6729.46732.280
6829.22231.855
6928.92831.416
7028.58231.099
7128.36430.665
7228.08430.316
7327.82929.904
7427.48229.535
7527.23029.123
7626.89228.754
7726.55428.350
7826.14727.974
7925.71527.612
8025.36127.134
8124.99526.681
8224.60526.247
8324.28225.749
8423.95225.328
8523.61824.960
8623.23024.459
8722.73523.936
8822.26023.509
8921.81922.990
9021.27322.403
9120.75621.845
9220.20321.172
9319.67620.436
9419.09119.508
9518.41818.819
9617.59717.997
9716.61416.727
9815.38815.550
9913.48814.046


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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