Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove



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Historical and exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove ( Jan 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jan10.9004.3284.5873.1986.65238.721
Jan-Feb19.6778.1757.3885.47512.88652.946
Jan-Mar27.95211.20511.0988.38618.11666.798

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1027.66543.621
2024.79736.024
3022.75131.619
4021.16827.888
5019.75724.923
6018.45222.020
7017.11319.530
8015.61616.952
9013.61313.839

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.88867.609
234.19559.261
332.50556.158
431.20453.679
530.26851.886
629.54049.451
729.03747.779
828.44246.243
928.05044.737
1027.66543.621
1127.22742.705
1226.93041.702
1326.61340.948
1426.31940.197
1526.05639.376
1625.79038.729
1725.46637.977
1825.22937.215
1924.98536.548
2024.79736.024
2124.57735.520
2224.34134.961
2324.07634.570
2423.84634.003
2523.65233.649
2623.50733.344
2723.32632.881
2823.13732.513
2922.93032.087
3022.75131.619
3122.56431.192
3222.39630.758
3322.25630.417
3422.10430.080
3521.94929.618
3621.81729.250
3721.67428.882
3821.53928.539
3921.32928.258
4021.16827.888
4121.02827.530
4220.85027.265
4320.72927.042
4420.59426.735
4520.45226.459
4620.29326.149
4720.13925.869
4820.01125.502
4919.88925.224
5019.75724.923
5119.62124.650
5219.49524.376
5319.36324.055
5419.22923.747
5519.09123.434
5618.98223.054
5718.86122.829
5818.72322.601
5918.57422.350
6018.45222.020
6118.31321.689
6218.20521.447
6318.08021.221
6417.96320.942
6517.81020.724
6617.64220.500
6717.49820.291
6817.34820.017
6917.22919.734
7017.11319.530
7116.97319.249
7216.83119.023
7316.70518.756
7416.56618.516
7516.35918.249
7616.22018.009
7716.10117.746
7815.93817.501
7915.77817.264
8015.61616.952
8115.38916.656
8215.21216.372
8315.06416.045
8414.89315.769
8514.67515.527
8614.48715.197
8714.29114.852
8814.07414.570
8913.90714.227
9013.61313.839
9113.37113.469
9213.10313.022
9312.84012.532
9412.46811.914
9512.00711.454
9611.71210.904
9711.24810.052
9810.5539.261
999.4338.246


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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