Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir


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Product list for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1040.98940.863
2037.32135.939
3034.99132.784
4032.79429.898
5030.73027.444
6028.81724.886
7026.82922.559
8024.24420.014
9020.74616.753

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
149.53253.687
247.17649.566
345.73847.956
444.50046.634
543.62345.655
642.93944.294
742.40543.336
841.89642.439
941.38641.541
1040.98940.863
1140.44240.299
1239.90039.673
1339.53139.196
1439.18138.716
1538.84938.184
1638.50237.760
1738.24837.262
1837.87536.751
1937.60136.298
2037.32135.939
2137.08535.591
2236.81035.200
2336.61234.926
2436.42934.523
2536.13234.269
2635.88834.050
2735.62633.714
2835.40533.445
2935.17333.132
3034.99132.784
3134.73832.464
3234.51332.137
3334.25231.877
3434.06331.619
3533.82331.263
3633.64130.976
3733.41330.688
3833.19730.418
3933.02830.194
4032.79429.898
4132.60229.610
4232.39529.395
4332.18029.213
4432.01128.962
4531.80628.734
4631.60528.478
4731.43728.244
4831.10727.935
4930.90227.700
5030.73027.444
5130.55327.210
5230.36626.974
5330.16026.696
5430.00126.427
5529.79426.152
5629.57225.816
5729.38925.615
5829.16425.411
5928.96625.185
6028.81724.886
6128.61924.584
6228.41224.362
6328.22324.153
6428.03723.894
6527.84423.690
6627.63723.481
6727.44623.284
6827.28923.024
6927.08022.755
7026.82922.559
7126.57922.288
7226.34222.069
7326.12321.810
7425.89721.575
7525.69321.312
7625.39121.074
7725.09420.812
7824.81220.567
7924.52520.330
8024.24420.014
8123.91319.712
8223.56819.421
8323.32919.085
8422.98818.798
8522.66018.546
8622.33018.200
8721.99417.836
8821.64517.537
8921.20617.171
9020.74616.753
9120.28016.353
9219.75815.866
9319.09715.327
9418.45414.642
9517.86914.127
9616.79313.507
9715.72612.539
9814.25311.631
9912.06210.457


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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