Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir


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Product list for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1045.93241.793
2042.10336.737
3039.31133.473
4036.86830.468
5034.58427.896
6032.39425.198
7030.10522.730
8027.40620.019
9023.72916.533

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
156.59754.813
253.31350.646
351.73249.014
450.44347.672
549.37946.678
648.25345.293
747.48644.317
846.89343.402
946.41342.485
1045.93241.793
1145.50941.215
1245.13140.574
1344.74640.085
1444.33039.593
1543.91039.047
1643.60738.612
1743.16638.099
1842.81037.574
1942.43337.107
2042.10336.737
2141.75636.377
2241.47235.974
2341.23235.690
2440.92435.274
2540.67735.012
2640.41134.785
2740.08834.437
2839.84434.159
2939.56233.833
3039.31133.473
3139.11933.141
3238.88132.801
3338.56832.530
3438.29832.262
3538.04931.891
3637.78931.593
3737.57731.292
3837.32031.010
3937.08530.777
4036.86830.468
4136.61130.166
4236.33729.942
4336.06129.751
4435.84929.488
4535.63829.250
4635.42028.981
4735.19628.735
4835.00128.412
4934.77328.165
5034.58427.896
5134.33427.650
5234.11027.401
5333.88127.108
5433.67626.825
5533.52026.536
5633.31526.181
5733.10725.969
5832.89025.753
5932.61025.514
6032.39425.198
6132.11224.879
6231.90124.644
6331.71124.422
6431.49924.148
6531.28823.932
6631.05323.710
6730.81523.501
6830.61623.225
6930.36222.939
7030.10522.730
7129.79622.443
7229.56822.210
7329.31721.934
7429.08521.684
7528.75821.404
7628.51121.150
7728.21920.871
7827.99420.609
7927.74520.356
8027.40620.019
8127.04519.697
8226.69819.386
8326.35519.026
8426.00818.720
8525.72818.450
8625.37718.081
8724.94817.691
8824.55917.371
8924.18216.980
9023.72916.533
9123.14716.105
9222.47315.584
9321.72015.009
9421.00714.277
9520.36813.729
9619.52813.069
9718.40712.042
9817.00011.082
9915.1229.851


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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