Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir


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Product list for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Oct8.5527.9761.8216.60813.080
Oct-Nov15.56816.0053.63813.23932.838
Oct-Dec20.76621.4934.98318.08952.080

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1027.65633.036
2024.19027.357
3021.80024.062
4019.80121.254
5018.15219.003
6016.74016.771
7015.17214.830
8013.49412.786
9011.38210.254

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
137.47451.614
234.83244.979
333.18842.566
432.04440.657
531.04539.285
630.23037.432
729.38936.166
828.82035.007
928.28433.874
1027.65633.036
1127.27932.349
1226.92231.599
1326.47431.034
1426.06130.473
1525.67929.860
1625.32229.376
1724.99628.815
1824.67628.246
1924.45127.748
2024.19027.357
2123.87126.980
2223.55526.562
2323.32826.271
2423.13825.847
2522.90825.582
2622.69825.354
2722.48925.007
2822.22124.732
2921.93324.413
3021.80024.062
3121.59223.741
3221.40323.416
3321.18323.159
3421.01022.906
3520.81422.559
3620.60922.282
3720.40822.004
3820.25021.746
3919.98621.533
4019.80121.254
4119.66020.983
4219.45920.783
4319.28820.614
4419.15020.381
4518.96120.171
4618.75919.937
4718.65119.723
4818.48619.444
4918.33519.232
5018.15219.003
5117.93418.794
5217.78818.584
5317.65918.338
5417.54218.102
5517.39117.862
5617.28317.570
5717.13417.396
5816.99017.220
5916.84417.027
6016.74016.771
6116.59316.515
6216.47116.328
6316.31916.152
6416.19715.935
6516.04715.765
6615.89415.590
6715.70515.427
6815.52915.212
6915.34714.991
7015.17214.830
7115.01414.609
7214.84814.431
7314.68714.221
7414.49914.031
7514.34513.820
7614.16113.629
7713.98113.420
7813.81613.224
7913.63213.036
8013.49412.786
8113.34412.548
8213.13212.319
8312.94712.056
8412.71711.833
8512.49911.636
8612.31011.368
8712.08511.087
8811.88010.856
8911.64210.575
9011.38210.254
9111.1389.948
9210.8269.576
9310.4599.167
9410.1798.646
959.7688.255
969.4017.785
978.8807.049
988.1956.356
997.2015.453


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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