Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir


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Product list for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Sep9.7428.3032.8498.88816.556
Sep-Oct18.29416.2794.67015.49535.915
Sep-Nov25.30924.3086.48722.12753.137

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.95739.267
2031.73033.135
3028.57829.444
4025.91626.233
5023.70723.626
6021.51221.022
7019.29918.750
8016.85216.360
9013.75013.422

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
148.53357.081
244.98851.104
343.03848.828
441.47146.987
539.83445.640
638.81243.792
737.83842.509
837.24041.320
936.57140.145
1035.95739.267
1135.40838.542
1234.90837.744
1334.44037.141
1433.96536.538
1533.54335.876
1633.13935.351
1732.77334.738
1832.45634.115
1932.08533.567
2031.73033.135
2131.39932.718
2231.01332.253
2330.67731.928
2430.36231.454
2530.09831.157
2629.77230.901
2729.47830.511
2829.09330.201
2928.84229.841
3028.57829.444
3128.32429.080
3228.02528.710
3327.71728.417
3427.44028.129
3527.19927.732
3626.96727.414
3726.63227.096
3826.38926.799
3926.18226.555
4025.91626.233
4125.66425.921
4225.42425.690
4325.20225.494
4424.95325.225
4524.73124.982
4624.53124.710
4724.29124.463
4824.07824.139
4923.88023.893
5023.70723.626
5123.52223.383
5223.33823.139
5323.09222.852
5422.83722.577
5522.59222.297
5622.35921.955
5722.08121.753
5821.85821.547
5921.70021.321
6021.51221.022
6121.25620.723
6221.02220.503
6320.81620.297
6420.64420.043
6520.44519.844
6620.22319.640
6720.01519.449
6819.79719.198
6919.55618.938
7019.29918.750
7119.04318.492
7218.84718.283
7318.57418.037
7418.34817.815
7518.08117.568
7617.84917.345
7717.62417.100
7817.32116.872
7917.08316.652
8016.85216.360
8116.58516.083
8216.33215.817
8316.04315.510
8415.78315.250
8515.48815.022
8615.17714.711
8714.89414.384
8814.55514.117
8914.19013.792
9013.75013.422
9113.29613.069
9212.83212.642
9312.44712.173
9411.99611.579
9511.50011.135
9610.85010.602
979.9919.775
988.9259.003
997.5408.008


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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