Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1996) (GL)
Jan3.4982.3263.4651.2423.2586.151
Jan-Feb6.0234.5585.8091.6666.00017.389
Jan-Mar8.4036.7087.9762.2948.44023.352

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.86812.861
2010.59510.614
309.7669.350
409.0988.297
508.4717.469
607.9716.663
707.4145.974
806.7635.262
905.9634.399

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.65420.825
214.61817.870
313.97816.827
413.47016.012
512.97715.433
612.73014.659
712.50414.136
812.29913.661
912.07213.200
1011.86812.861
1111.70812.584
1211.55912.284
1311.43812.059
1411.30311.836
1511.14011.593
1611.01111.403
1710.91111.182
1810.81410.960
1910.69610.766
2010.59510.614
2110.52510.468
2210.41910.306
2310.32010.194
2410.23810.031
2510.1539.929
2610.0859.842
2710.0049.710
289.9319.605
299.8479.484
309.7669.350
319.6819.229
329.6179.106
339.5599.009
349.4858.914
359.4108.784
369.3478.680
379.2778.577
389.2108.480
399.1578.401
409.0988.297
419.0348.197
428.9708.123
438.9178.060
448.8577.974
458.8087.897
468.7397.811
478.6797.733
488.6087.630
498.5437.553
508.4717.469
518.4277.393
528.3677.317
538.3117.228
548.2677.142
558.2157.055
568.1546.950
578.1076.887
588.0636.824
598.0176.755
607.9716.663
617.9066.572
627.8586.505
637.7996.442
647.7496.365
657.6946.304
667.6376.243
677.5986.185
687.5416.109
697.4756.031
707.4145.974
717.3485.897
727.2905.834
737.2205.760
747.1595.694
757.1035.620
767.0265.554
776.9685.481
786.8955.413
796.8215.348
806.7635.262
816.7155.180
826.6405.101
836.5765.011
846.5104.934
856.4174.867
866.3314.776
876.2404.680
886.1464.602
896.0504.507
905.9634.399
915.8534.296
925.7334.172
935.6014.036
945.4773.863
955.3443.735
965.1673.581
975.0083.341
984.7013.118
994.2782.831


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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