Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodga River at Black Cat


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Product list for Goodga River at Black Cat


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Exceedance probability for Goodga River at Black Cat( Nov 2017 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.6740.723
200.5390.569
300.4590.486
400.3950.419
500.3440.368
600.3000.320
700.2580.279
800.2140.239
900.1620.192

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11.1751.321
21.0111.091
30.9241.012
40.8730.951
50.8150.908
60.7820.852
70.7430.814
80.7200.780
90.6930.747
100.6740.723
110.6560.704
120.6430.683
130.6260.667
140.6120.652
150.5990.635
160.5870.622
170.5750.608
180.5630.593
190.5510.579
200.5390.569
210.5310.560
220.5220.549
230.5140.541
240.5070.531
250.4970.524
260.4900.518
270.4830.510
280.4740.503
290.4660.495
300.4590.486
310.4520.478
320.4450.471
330.4380.464
340.4300.458
350.4250.450
360.4180.443
370.4120.437
380.4070.431
390.4010.426
400.3950.419
410.3910.413
420.3850.408
430.3800.404
440.3750.399
450.3690.394
460.3650.389
470.3580.384
480.3540.378
490.3500.373
500.3440.368
510.3390.363
520.3350.359
530.3300.353
540.3270.348
550.3230.343
560.3190.337
570.3130.333
580.3090.329
590.3040.325
600.3000.320
610.2960.314
620.2910.310
630.2870.307
640.2830.302
650.2780.298
660.2740.295
670.2700.292
680.2660.287
690.2620.283
700.2580.279
710.2540.275
720.2500.271
730.2450.267
740.2410.263
750.2370.259
760.2320.255
770.2270.251
780.2230.247
790.2180.244
800.2140.239
810.2100.234
820.2060.230
830.2000.225
840.1950.221
850.1900.217
860.1850.212
870.1790.207
880.1730.203
890.1680.198
900.1620.192
910.1550.186
920.1480.180
930.1410.173
940.1340.164
950.1250.157
960.1130.149
970.1020.137
980.0910.126
990.0740.112


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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