Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodga River at Black Cat


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Product list for Goodga River at Black Cat



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Exceedance probability for Goodga River at Black Cat ( Jan 2017 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.4320.388
200.3430.307
300.2890.263
400.2470.227
500.2110.199
600.1800.173
700.1520.151
800.1190.129
900.0830.103

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10.7540.698
20.6420.580
30.5900.539
40.5550.507
50.5220.485
60.4970.456
70.4770.436
80.4620.418
90.4450.401
100.4320.388
110.4200.378
120.4080.367
130.3970.359
140.3860.351
150.3790.342
160.3720.335
170.3640.327
180.3560.319
190.3500.312
200.3430.307
210.3350.302
220.3290.296
230.3240.292
240.3170.287
250.3120.283
260.3070.280
270.3030.275
280.2990.272
290.2940.267
300.2890.263
310.2840.259
320.2790.254
330.2760.251
340.2720.248
350.2670.243
360.2630.240
370.2590.236
380.2550.233
390.2510.230
400.2470.227
410.2430.223
420.2390.221
430.2350.219
440.2310.216
450.2270.213
460.2240.211
470.2210.208
480.2170.205
490.2140.202
500.2110.199
510.2080.197
520.2040.194
530.2010.191
540.1970.188
550.1940.186
560.1920.182
570.1890.180
580.1850.178
590.1830.176
600.1800.173
610.1770.170
620.1740.168
630.1720.166
640.1680.163
650.1660.161
660.1630.159
670.1600.158
680.1570.155
690.1540.153
700.1520.151
710.1490.149
720.1460.147
730.1430.144
740.1390.142
750.1360.140
760.1320.138
770.1290.136
780.1260.133
790.1220.131
800.1190.129
810.1160.126
820.1120.124
830.1080.121
840.1040.119
850.1020.117
860.0980.114
870.0960.111
880.0910.109
890.0870.106
900.0830.103
910.0780.100
920.0730.096
930.0670.092
940.0630.087
950.0570.083
960.0490.079
970.0420.072
980.0280.066
990.0130.058


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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