Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodga River at Black Cat


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Product list for Goodga River at Black Cat



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Exceedance probability for Goodga River at Black Cat ( Feb 2018 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.5420.482
200.4540.400
300.4000.354
400.3540.315
500.3150.285
600.2780.255
700.2460.230
800.2090.203
900.1620.171

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10.8580.770
20.7590.663
30.6980.626
40.6630.596
50.6320.575
60.6070.547
70.5860.528
80.5720.511
90.5550.494
100.5420.482
110.5300.472
120.5190.461
130.5100.453
140.5000.444
150.4920.436
160.4840.429
170.4760.421
180.4690.412
190.4610.405
200.4540.400
210.4480.395
220.4430.389
230.4360.385
240.4300.379
250.4250.375
260.4190.372
270.4140.367
280.4100.363
290.4050.359
300.4000.354
310.3960.349
320.3920.345
330.3850.341
340.3810.338
350.3760.333
360.3720.329
370.3670.325
380.3620.322
390.3580.319
400.3540.315
410.3500.311
420.3460.309
430.3420.306
440.3380.303
450.3340.300
460.3300.297
470.3260.294
480.3220.291
490.3190.288
500.3150.285
510.3120.282
520.3070.279
530.3030.276
540.2990.273
550.2950.269
560.2920.266
570.2880.263
580.2850.261
590.2820.258
600.2780.255
610.2750.252
620.2710.249
630.2680.247
640.2650.244
650.2620.242
660.2590.240
670.2560.237
680.2520.235
690.2490.232
700.2460.230
710.2420.227
720.2390.225
730.2360.222
740.2310.219
750.2280.217
760.2250.214
770.2210.211
780.2170.209
790.2130.207
800.2090.203
810.2040.200
820.1990.197
830.1950.194
840.1920.191
850.1870.189
860.1830.185
870.1780.182
880.1730.179
890.1670.175
900.1620.171
910.1530.168
920.1480.163
930.1410.158
940.1330.152
950.1250.147
960.1150.141
970.1040.132
980.0910.124
990.0740.113


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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