Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodga River at Black Cat


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Product list for Goodga River at Black Cat



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Exceedance probability for Goodga River at Black Cat ( Mar 2018 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.821
200.690
300.616
400.553
500.504
600.455
700.413
800.368
900.314

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11.269
21.105
31.046
41.000
50.968
60.924
70.894
80.867
90.840
100.821
110.805
120.788
130.775
140.762
150.748
160.736
170.724
180.711
190.699
200.690
210.682
220.672
230.666
240.656
250.650
260.645
270.637
280.631
290.624
300.616
310.609
320.602
330.596
340.590
350.582
360.576
370.570
380.564
390.560
400.553
410.547
420.543
430.539
440.534
450.529
460.524
470.520
480.513
490.509
500.504
510.499
520.494
530.489
540.484
550.479
560.472
570.468
580.465
590.460
600.455
610.449
620.445
630.441
640.437
650.433
660.429
670.426
680.421
690.416
700.413
710.408
720.404
730.399
740.395
750.391
760.387
770.382
780.378
790.374
800.368
810.363
820.358
830.353
840.348
850.344
860.338
870.332
880.327
890.321
900.314
910.308
920.300
930.291
940.280
950.272
960.262
970.247
980.232
990.214


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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