Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Swan River at Walyunga


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Product list for Swan River at Walyunga


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Exceedance probability for Swan River at Walyunga( Aug 2019 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10198.472297.857
20161.594215.836
30136.790173.871
40118.536141.450
50102.872117.568
6090.43995.741
7077.74478.426
8064.14661.622
9049.46943.013

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1334.426656.590
2297.574512.415
3275.365464.158
4257.656428.115
5241.996402.232
6229.787370.023
7219.954348.558
8212.482329.252
9204.142311.005
10198.472297.857
11193.214287.299
12188.610276.026
13184.567267.617
14179.960259.291
15176.042250.437
16173.938243.634
17170.842235.679
18167.120227.778
19163.802221.036
20161.594215.836
21158.253210.858
22155.029205.187
23153.019201.592
24150.423196.089
25147.948192.767
26145.639189.902
27143.613185.456
28141.309181.986
29138.963178.189
30136.790173.871
31134.616170.060
32132.747166.085
33130.855163.061
34129.310160.235
35127.238156.115
36125.298153.003
37123.217149.826
38121.385146.954
39120.026144.547
40118.536141.450
41116.800138.465
42115.223136.311
43113.439134.443
44111.519131.968
45109.928129.748
46108.608127.215
47107.279125.039
48105.793122.129
49104.354119.902
50102.872117.568
51101.684115.454
52100.358113.387
5399.126110.857
5497.993108.606
5596.854106.120
5695.512103.391
5794.230101.720
5892.919100.013
5991.68198.211
6090.43995.741
6189.11393.420
6287.79591.711
6386.56490.086
6485.34888.161
6584.13786.634
6683.13485.078
6781.86583.628
6880.55081.743
6979.37579.812
7077.74478.426
7176.23576.534
7275.08475.022
7373.89973.251
7472.68771.671
7571.47469.921
7669.84468.360
7768.68566.661
7867.50165.092
7965.75463.590
8064.14661.622
8162.73659.771
8261.38958.010
8360.07856.007
8458.79054.327
8557.14852.868
8655.32750.899
8754.06948.862
8852.39947.216
8950.89245.231
9049.46943.013
9147.50840.928
9245.08738.445
9342.82535.771
9440.96232.464
9538.16630.054
9635.18327.228
9731.71022.984
9828.38819.179
9922.55014.507


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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