Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Swan River at Walyunga


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Product list for Swan River at Walyunga



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Exceedance probability for Swan River at Walyunga ( Jan 2018 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1099.281
2015.294
303.869
401.062
500.346
600.097
700.030
800.007
900.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1501.717
2425.406
3372.068
4311.259
5270.326
6215.927
7176.360
8142.267
9120.806
1099.281
1181.417
1267.154
1353.916
1444.539
1536.748
1629.671
1724.875
1820.502
1917.529
2015.294
2112.941
2211.417
239.671
248.667
257.880
266.752
275.884
285.173
294.437
303.869
313.329
322.971
332.659
342.259
351.991
361.741
371.544
381.395
391.216
401.062
410.972
420.888
430.800
440.712
450.633
460.568
470.491
480.441
490.387
500.346
510.312
520.279
530.240
540.212
550.181
560.162
570.146
580.131
590.114
600.097
610.087
620.076
630.068
640.061
650.055
660.050
670.044
680.038
690.033
700.030
710.026
720.023
730.020
740.018
750.015
760.013
770.011
780.010
790.008
800.007
810.006
820.005
830.004
840.003
850.002
860.002
870.001
880.001
890.000
900.000
910.000
920.000
930.000
940.000
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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