Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Terciles for Swan River at Walyunga

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Product list for Swan River at Walyunga

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Terciles for Swan River at Walyunga(  )

Tercile Summary
Range (GL)Percentage of Streamflow Forecast (%)
Low flow< 0.329.020
Near median flow0.3 - 2.137.540
High flow> 2.133.440

About the tercile product

  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  4. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  5. To define the terciles, historical data are arranged in order from lowest to highest and partitioned into three equal groups. The lowest third of the data values are defined as the lowest tercile, the middle third of the values are the middle tercile and the upper third are the upper tercile.
  6. The values that partition the historical data into terciles are applied to the forecast distribution. The percentage of the forecast that is in each tercile is then displayed as a pie chart.
  7. The terciles are labelled such that forecasts with the greatest probability of being in the lower third of the distribution are defined as low flow, those in the middle third of the distribution are defined as near median flow and those in the upper third of the distribution are defined as high flow.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.

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