Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake


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Product list for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake


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Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake( Jun 2019 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10105.197
2089.678
3080.472
4072.478
5065.953
6059.368
7053.528
8047.250
9039.261

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1154.136
2136.866
3130.542
4125.517
5121.892
6116.975
7113.599
8110.500
9107.456
10105.197
11103.340
12101.305
1399.771
1498.241
1596.566
1695.242
1793.700
1892.134
1990.759
2089.678
2188.634
2287.473
2386.662
2485.480
2584.739
2684.101
2783.130
2882.358
2981.461
3080.472
3179.567
3278.646
3377.918
3477.200
3576.212
3675.421
3774.630
3873.890
3973.281
4072.478
4171.700
4271.122
4370.634
4469.962
4569.355
4668.674
4768.054
4867.241
4966.624
5065.953
5165.342
5264.728
5364.006
5463.311
5562.603
5661.739
5761.225
5860.703
5960.128
6059.368
6158.604
6258.043
6357.516
6456.864
6556.354
6655.828
6755.335
6854.687
6954.016
7053.528
7152.857
7252.314
7351.671
7451.092
7550.443
7649.857
7749.211
7848.609
7948.025
8047.250
8146.511
8245.797
8344.973
8444.272
8543.654
8642.808
8741.917
8841.184
8940.286
9039.261
9138.276
9237.075
9335.743
9434.039
9532.751
9631.189
9728.722
9826.368
9923.253


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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