Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake


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Product list for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake


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Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake( Sep 2019 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1052.73874.210
2044.73861.892
3038.73454.343
4033.75947.727
5029.63142.349
6025.95737.008
7021.98932.398
8017.48427.635
9011.25721.960

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.329108.160
269.48497.054
365.73292.754
462.80889.244
560.66486.660
658.57183.087
756.83080.588
855.27678.261
954.07075.946
1052.73874.210
1151.72872.770
1250.71471.181
1349.78769.976
1449.03268.767
1548.14867.437
1647.47666.379
1746.77365.143
1845.99363.882
1945.44162.770
2044.73861.892
2144.19061.043
2243.44560.096
2342.74359.433
2442.18158.465
2541.68357.857
2641.05157.333
2740.47456.534
2839.90755.899
2939.20755.159
3038.73454.343
3138.16853.595
3237.63252.833
3337.06652.231
3436.57651.636
3536.17350.818
3635.66550.163
3735.17649.508
3834.70748.895
3934.26148.391
4033.75947.727
4133.34947.083
4232.89446.605
4332.45246.202
4432.03445.647
4531.66445.146
4631.29144.585
4730.92544.075
4830.56243.406
4930.11042.899
5029.63142.349
5129.20941.849
5228.83941.347
5328.46240.758
5428.13140.192
5527.73939.617
5627.37238.917
5727.02338.502
5826.69138.081
5926.27337.618
6025.95737.008
6125.56136.397
6225.12635.949
6324.76935.530
6424.32035.013
6523.87834.610
6623.48134.196
6723.16433.808
6822.71833.301
6922.32132.777
7021.98932.398
7121.54331.878
7221.07231.459
7320.56030.966
7420.16130.522
7519.76330.028
7619.22229.584
7718.86029.098
7818.50728.646
7918.07928.210
8017.48427.635
8116.99427.091
8216.46626.568
8315.93425.970
8415.37425.464
8514.86025.021
8614.26924.420
8713.57823.792
8812.79123.281
8912.13722.661
9011.25721.960
9110.55121.296
929.93120.497
938.88219.626
947.67818.535
955.99817.729
964.42816.773
972.59915.312
980.00013.975
990.00012.298


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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