Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake


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Product list for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake



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Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake ( Jan 2019 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.89514.107
209.16411.059
308.0909.420
407.2048.100
506.5047.094
605.8096.145
705.2165.358
804.5524.570
903.6973.655

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
117.08826.042
214.90721.431
313.89019.851
413.30518.637
512.72717.784
612.15416.659
711.78815.907
811.47315.231
911.12214.581
1010.89514.107
1110.64313.724
1210.42013.309
1310.24713.001
1410.03012.697
159.87712.368
169.72912.111
179.56611.815
189.40711.517
199.28211.260
209.16411.059
219.03910.867
228.93310.655
238.82010.508
248.67910.296
258.55910.164
268.46710.051
278.3859.880
288.2779.745
298.1829.590
308.0909.420
317.9859.266
327.9019.110
337.8048.988
347.7218.868
357.6338.705
367.5438.575
377.4668.446
387.3848.326
397.3118.228
407.2048.100
417.1317.977
427.0537.886
436.9877.809
446.9257.705
456.8447.611
466.7847.506
476.7107.411
486.6527.288
496.5857.195
506.5047.094
516.4197.003
526.3506.913
536.2796.807
546.2056.705
556.1416.603
566.0696.479
575.9916.406
585.9216.332
595.8716.251
605.8096.145
615.7556.039
625.6845.962
635.6395.889
645.5825.801
655.5215.732
665.4655.661
675.4045.596
685.3405.510
695.2855.421
705.2165.358
715.1565.271
725.1005.201
735.0175.118
744.9575.045
754.8924.963
764.8124.890
774.7554.809
784.6934.735
794.6194.664
804.5524.570
814.4694.481
824.4004.396
834.3254.299
844.2514.217
854.1754.146
864.0994.049
873.9933.948
883.8843.866
893.7663.767
903.6973.655
913.6113.549
923.4923.422
933.3643.284
943.2103.110
953.0772.983
962.9102.831
972.6972.600
982.4462.388
992.0672.121


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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