Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake


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Product list for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake



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Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake ( Feb 2019 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.44415.791
208.47012.364
307.15410.524
406.1879.043
505.3577.915
604.5916.851
703.9105.970
803.1115.088
902.2144.065

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
117.63729.234
215.17024.036
313.98622.256
413.30620.889
512.52719.929
612.01418.662
711.52017.816
811.18517.055
910.80416.324
1010.44415.791
1110.19115.360
129.97114.894
139.77014.547
149.52514.205
159.34213.835
169.12813.546
178.95213.214
188.77012.880
198.64812.590
208.47012.364
218.29412.149
228.13811.911
238.00711.746
247.86811.507
257.70411.359
267.57911.233
277.47511.041
287.37010.890
297.26210.715
307.15410.524
317.05710.351
326.95410.176
336.87510.039
346.7719.905
356.6639.721
366.5749.576
376.4929.431
386.3749.297
396.2779.187
406.1879.043
416.0818.905
425.9758.803
435.9028.717
445.8198.600
455.7328.494
465.6508.377
475.5708.270
485.5058.132
495.4318.028
505.3577.915
515.2817.813
525.1957.711
535.1207.593
545.0457.479
554.9697.364
564.8827.225
574.8157.143
584.7577.061
594.6706.970
604.5916.851
614.5116.732
624.4586.646
634.3986.565
644.3226.466
654.2596.389
664.1796.310
674.1126.236
684.0466.140
693.9766.041
703.9105.970
713.8365.872
723.7505.794
733.6795.702
743.6105.619
753.5345.528
763.4455.446
773.3685.356
783.2685.273
793.1875.193
803.1115.088
813.0254.989
822.9564.894
832.8814.785
842.7984.694
852.6884.614
862.6094.505
872.5024.393
882.3944.301
892.3154.190
902.2144.065
912.0823.947
921.9573.805
931.7823.650
941.6373.457
951.4743.314
961.2573.145
970.9952.887
980.7962.650
990.4642.352


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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