Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake


Return to catchment list
Product list for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake



Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake ( Mar 2019 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1030.928
2023.296
3019.329
4016.215
5013.896
6011.756
7010.023
808.329
906.422

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
163.121
250.313
346.024
442.766
540.497
637.529
735.565
833.812
932.139
1030.928
1129.951
1228.901
1328.123
1427.358
1526.535
1625.894
1725.159
1824.424
1923.789
2023.296
2122.825
2222.309
2321.951
2421.436
2521.117
2620.844
2720.432
2820.109
2919.736
3019.329
3118.961
3218.591
3318.301
3418.018
3517.632
3617.326
3717.023
3816.743
3916.514
4016.215
4115.928
4215.717
4315.539
4415.297
4515.080
4614.839
4714.621
4814.338
4914.125
5013.896
5113.689
5213.483
5313.242
5413.014
5512.783
5612.504
5712.339
5812.174
5911.993
6011.756
6111.520
6211.349
6311.189
6410.994
6510.842
6610.687
6710.542
6810.354
6910.161
7010.023
719.833
729.681
739.503
749.344
759.168
769.011
778.839
788.681
798.528
808.329
818.141
827.962
837.757
847.586
857.436
867.235
877.025
886.856
896.651
906.422
916.206
925.948
935.669
945.323
955.069
964.771
974.320
983.912
993.408


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence