Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake


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Product list for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake



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Exceedance probability for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake ( Jan 2016 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.69714.107
204.69011.059
304.0789.420
403.5878.100
503.1787.094
602.7906.145
702.4505.358
802.0944.570
901.6253.655

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19.32626.042
28.23621.431
37.69919.851
47.18218.637
56.85617.784
66.52016.659
76.21615.907
86.00615.231
95.82914.581
105.69714.107
115.58813.724
125.46513.309
135.36513.001
145.24612.697
155.15812.368
165.03812.111
174.94511.815
184.84511.517
194.76811.260
204.69011.059
214.62210.867
224.52410.655
234.46910.508
244.39810.296
254.33410.164
264.28610.051
274.2329.880
284.1899.745
294.1319.590
304.0789.420
314.0209.266
323.9679.110
333.9058.988
343.8468.868
353.8088.705
363.7628.575
373.7138.446
383.6768.326
393.6348.228
403.5878.100
413.5477.977
423.5077.886
433.4697.809
443.4197.705
453.3827.611
463.3397.506
473.2977.411
483.2547.288
493.2227.195
503.1787.094
513.1417.003
523.0966.913
533.0526.807
543.0106.705
552.9756.603
562.9336.479
572.9026.406
582.8596.332
592.8266.251
602.7906.145
612.7556.039
622.7195.962
632.6875.889
642.6605.801
652.6265.732
662.5935.661
672.5585.596
682.5235.510
692.4855.421
702.4505.358
712.4155.271
722.3815.201
732.3425.118
742.3145.045
752.2774.963
762.2434.890
772.2114.809
782.1654.735
792.1294.664
802.0944.570
812.0604.481
822.0044.396
831.9594.299
841.9184.217
851.8684.146
861.8124.049
871.7723.948
881.7273.866
891.6753.767
901.6253.655
911.5603.549
921.4833.422
931.3883.284
941.3233.110
951.2312.983
961.0972.831
970.9702.600
980.8412.388
990.6142.121


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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