Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake

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Product list for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake

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Probability distribution for Cam River at u/s of Somerset Water Supply Intake ( Jan 2019 )

Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
5th percentile3.0822.985
25th percentile4.8924.963
75th percentile8.55910.164
95th percentile12.72417.755

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About the probability distribution product

  1. The forecast and the historical reference are each presented as a boxplot.
  2. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises of 5000 members.
  3. The forecast quality of the BJP model varies for each forecast period of the year. For further details about forecast quality see the "Model validation" tab.
  4. In the event of very low model skill or missing observed data, no BJP forecast will be issued and hence a forecast not shown, with a hatched box appearing in place of a boxplot.
  5. The recent observed data are from near real-time data sources which may not have been rigorously quality controlled. When available, observed streamflow data for the forecast period are represented by the pink dotted line.
  6. Historical data used to generate the historical reference boxplot are verified data sourced from the data owner.
  7. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data, which are derived from the available record of historical observations. The standard historical reference data period is 1970-2013. For some sites the data record is shorter.
  8. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  9. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  10. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.

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