Hits and misses summary


The figure below shows the tercile hits and misses for the last 12 completed forecast periods.

The forecast distribution is constructed from 5000 forecast ensemble members generated by the BJP model, with each member having the same probability of occurring. The hit and miss concept is applied to each ensemble member of a forecast. A tercile hit is when the forecast ensemble member is in the same tercile as the observed streamflow. A miss by 1 is when the forecast ensemble member is one tercile different from the tercile of the observed streamflow. A miss by 2 is when the forecast ensemble member is two terciles different from the tercile of the observed streamflow. The hit rate, miss by 1 rate and miss by 2 rate are then averaged across all locations to provide a cumulative percentage. For forecasts that were based purely on the historical record you could expect that the tercile hits would average 33% (indicated by the pink dotted line in the figure below).

Hits and misses summary




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