Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: July to September 2014



Near median and high flows more likely

Streamflow forecasts for the July to September period suggest near median and high flows are more likely at most locations.

Across eastern Australia in June, high streamflows were recorded at 33 of 74 locations, and low streamflows were recorded at 21 locations. Near median streamflows occurred at 20 locations. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral.

Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.

Cape York Peninsula Northern Queensland Southern Queensland South Australia Northern New South Wales Southern New South Wales Victoria Northern Territory Map of Australian forecast sites.

Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for July to September 2014

Tercile forecast for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Murray River at Biggara (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Ovens River at Bright (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Acheron River at Taggerty (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Goulburn River at Dohertys (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tambo River at Swifts Creek (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Wonnangatta River at Waterford (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Latrobe River at Willow Grove (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Lake Eildon (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Graceburn Creek inflow at Graceburn Weir (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to O'Shannassy Reservoir (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Upper Yarra Reservoir (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Thomson Reservoir (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Victorian catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for July to September 2014

Tercile forecast for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Cotter River at Gingera (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gudgenby at Tennent (High skill)Tercile forecast for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Muttama Creek at Coolac (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Shoalhaven River at Warri (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Maragle Creek at Maragle (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Tuross River at Tuross Vale (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for the Southern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for July to September 2014

Tercile forecast for Richmond River at Wiangaree (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Halls Creek at Bingara (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Turon River at Sofala (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Namoi River at North Cuerindi (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Barnard River above Barry (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Wollomombi River at Coninside (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Coxs River at Island Hill (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for the Northern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for July to September 2014

Tercile forecast for Bloomfield River at China Camp (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Wild River at Silver Valley (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Gregory River at Riversleigh (High skill)Tercile forecast for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise (High skill)Tercile forecast for Burdekin River at Sellheim (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Herbert River at Abergowrie (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Barron River at Picnic Crossing (High skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for July to September 2014

Tercile forecast for Swan Creek at Swanfels (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Stanley River at Peachester (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge (High skill)Tercile forecast for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam (High skill)Tercile forecast for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Emu Creek at Emu Vale (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for Southern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for July to September 2014

Tercile forecast for Coen River at Coen Racecourse (High skill)Tercile forecast for Coalseam Creek at Laura River (High skill)Map of forecast sites for Cape York Peninsula. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for July to September 2014

Tercile forecast for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave (High skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Territory. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours
  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.


Moderate or low forecast skill for most locations

The forecast skill scores for the July to September period are high for 9 out of 74 locations, moderate for 35 locations, low for 28 locations and very low for 2 locations. Forecasts that have low skill are displayed as faded pie charts on the maps. Skill scores for these forecasts exceed those obtained from using the historical record to calculate probabilities (historical reference). The forecasts with very low skill are displayed as grey pie charts on the maps.

June catchment conditions

Several fronts, troughs and low pressure systems crossed Victoria during June, bringing rainfall to much of the State. Overall, rainfall totals were above average over much of Victoria for the month, with slightly below average totals reported in the northwest of the State. The statewide average rainfall in New South Wales was close to normal (+8.6%) in June, with two surface troughs on the 1st and 14th June bringing above average rainfall in central and southern New South Wales, but below average rainfall persisting on the central and north coasts. In Queensland, rainfall in June was mostly above average across the northern tropics and the far northern Gulf of Carpentaria and parts of far south-western Queensland. Below average rainfall was recorded in the south-east Queensland including along the coast and in adjacent inland areas. The state-wide average rainfall of 16.4 mm was 12% below the historical average. June 2014 in the Northern Territory was very close to average for rainfall. Statewide rainfall in the Northern Territory was 5.3 mm, and 1.6 mm below the average for this dry season month. Most of the rainfall was due to occasional showers that pushed over eastern Arnhem Land from the Gulf of Carpentaria. More information about June weather and climate conditions can be found in the climate summaries for Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Northern Territory.

High June streamflows were recorded at 33 of the 74 locations and low streamflows were recorded at 21 locations. Near median streamflows were recorded at 20 locations.

Streamflow forecasts for July to September

Near median and high streamflows for the July to September forecast period are more likely at 28 and 25 locations, respectively, of the 72 locations where skill is acceptable. Low flows are more likely at 19 locations. The forecast is not issued due to very low skill scores at 2 locations.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter and spring.

The chances of receiving above median rainfall for July to September are less than 40% over parts of the southern Northern Territory, the southern two-thirds of Queensland, and most of New South Wales. Chances are lowest in the inland northeast of New South Wales, where there is a less than 30% chance of above average rainfall. In other words, this means the chances of below average rainfall is greater than 60% in these areas. Over the rest of the Northern Territory, Queensland and Victoria, there is no significant shift in the odds towards either a wetter or drier than normal season.


For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.


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