Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Date: May to July 2013
Near median or high flows likely for most forecast sites
Streamflow forecasts for the May to July period suggest that near median or high flows are more likely for most forecast sites. Low April streamflows were recorded at 17 sites out of 70 forecast sites, mainly in southern New South Wales and southern Victoria. High April streamflows occurred at 15 sites, mainly in southern Queensland and northern Victoria, and near median flows occurred at 37 locations scattered across eastern Australia. The tropical Pacific remains neutral with respect to ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and climate models indicate wetter season likely for much of the east and north, and drier across parts of south-eastern Australia.
Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.
Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for May to July 2013
Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for May to July 2013
Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for May to July 2013
Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for May to July 2013
Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for May to July 2013
Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for May to July 2013
Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for May to July 2013
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Moderate to high skill
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Low skill or missing climate data
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Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data
Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.
Low to moderate forecast skill for most sites
The forecast skill scores for the May-June-July period are high for four sites out of 70 sites, moderate for 21 sites, low for 28 sites and very low for 17 sites. Forecasts that have low skill are displayed as faded pie charts on the maps. Skill scores for these forecasts exceed those obtained from using the historical record to calculate probabilities (historical reference). The forecasts with very low skill are displayed as grey pie charts on the maps.
April catchment conditions
April rainfall was average to below average over southern Queensland, New South Wales and Victorian forecast catchments. Rainfall was above average over north-eastern Queensland and Cape York Peninsula, and average to above average over the remaining forecast catchments. More information about April weather and climate conditions can be found in the state climate summaries for Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Northern Territory.
Low April streamflows were recorded at 17 sites out of 70 forecast sites, mainly in southern New South Wales and southern Victoria. Conditions were warmer and catchments were drier than average particularly in Victoria. The total inflow to Lake Eppalock was zero for the fifth month in a row, while Cairn Curran and Tullaroop Reservoirs also recorded total inflows of zero in April. Near median flows were observed at 37 locations, mainly in northern New South Wales, northern Victoria and northern Queensland. High streamflows were observed at 15 sites, mainly in southern Queensland and are associated with wetter than average subsoil. Swan Creek at Swanfels in southern Queensland registered its highest April streamflow on record with 8840 ML, exceeding its previous highest April total of 8571 ML in 1989.
Streamflow forecasts for May to July
Near median or high total streamflows for the May to July forecast period are more likely at the majority of forecast sites, mainly in Queensland and eastern parts of New South Wales. Low flows are forecast for catchments in western parts of New South Wales and southern Victoria.
The tropical Pacific remains neutral and current atmospheric and oceanic indicators as well as climate model forecasts indicate neutral conditions are likely to continue. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to remain within neutral thresholds for the next season. The climate outlook for May to July 2013 indicates that a wetter than normal season is more likely for southern half of Queensland, northern New South Wales and much of Northern Territory, and drier for most of Victoria.
For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.
