Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: April to June 2014



Near Median flows more likely

Streamflow forecasts for the April to June period suggest that near median flows are more likely at most locations.

Across eastern Australia, near median streamflows were recorded in March at 35 of 74 locations, and low streamflows were recorded at 29 locations. High streamflows occurred at 10 locations. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) currently remains neutral but the tropical Pacific is currently warming. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the southern winter.

Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.

Cape York Peninsula Northern Queensland Southern Queensland South Australia Northern New South Wales Southern New South Wales Victoria Northern Territory Map of Australian forecast sites.

Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2014

Tercile forecast for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Hume Dam (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Mitta Mitta River at Hinnomunjie (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Murray River at Biggara (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Ovens River at Bright (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Acheron River at Taggerty (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Delatite River at Tonga Bridge (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Goulburn River at Dohertys (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Tambo River at Swifts Creek (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Wonnangatta River at Waterford (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Latrobe River at Willow Grove (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Lake Eildon (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Unregulated inflow to Goulburn Weir (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Watts River inflow to Maroondah Reservoir (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Graceburn Creek inflow at Graceburn Weir (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to O'Shannassy Reservoir (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Upper Yarra Reservoir (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Total inflow to Thomson Reservoir (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Victorian catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2014

Tercile forecast for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Cotter River at Gingera (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Gudgenby at Tennent (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Muttama Creek at Coolac (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Shoalhaven River at Warri (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Maragle Creek at Maragle (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Tuross River at Tuross Vale (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Southern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2014

Tercile forecast for Richmond River at Wiangaree (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Halls Creek at Bingara (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Turon River at Sofala (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Namoi River at North Cuerindi (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Barnard River above Barry (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Wollomombi River at Coninside (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Coxs River at Island Hill (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for the Northern New South Wales catchments. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2014

Tercile forecast for Bloomfield River at China Camp (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Wild River at Silver Valley (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Gregory River at Riversleigh (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Burdekin River at Sellheim (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Herbert River at Abergowrie (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls (Moderate skill)Tercile forecast for Barron River at Picnic Crossing (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2014

Tercile forecast for Swan Creek at Swanfels (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Stanley River at Peachester (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge (Very low skill)Tercile forecast for Emu Creek at Emu Vale (Very low skill)Map of forecast sites for Southern Queensland. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2014

Tercile forecast for Coen River at Coen Racecourse (Low skill)Tercile forecast for Coalseam Creek at Laura River (Low skill)Map of forecast sites for Cape York Peninsula. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours

Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for April to June 2014

Tercile forecast for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave (Moderate skill)Map of forecast sites for Northern Territory. Map legend indicating High, Near median, and low flow tercile colours
  • Legend image demonstrating moderate to high skill

    Moderate to high skill

  • Legend image demonstrating low skill

    Low skill or missing climate data

  • Legend image demonstrating very low skill

    Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.


Low or very low forecast skill for most locations

The forecast skill scores for the April to June period are moderate for 13 out of 74 locations, low for 25 locations and very low for 36 locations. Forecasts that have low skill are displayed as faded pie charts on the maps. Skill scores for these forecasts exceed those obtained from using the historical record to calculate probabilities (historical reference). The forecasts with very low skill are displayed as grey pie charts on the maps.

March catchment conditions

Rainfall was above average for much of New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland. Rainfall was below average in central Queensland, northern part of the Northern Territory, western part of South Australia and eastern part of Western Australia. Rainfall across the remainder of the country was generally average to below average.

Rainfall totals were slightly above average in parts of northern Victoria and average to slightly below elsewhere in the state. New South Wales recorded a statewide average rainfall of 78.3 mm during March, well above the historical average of 49 mm. Average rainfall in the Murray-Darling Basin was 62.2 mm, well above the historical average of 38.5 mm and the wettest single month since March 2012. Rainfall across Queensland was mixed: below to very much below average rainfall in north-western of the state. In contrast, the south-eastern quarter of Queensland had above to very much above average rain. March 2014 saw no monsoon activity in a month that is usually fairly wet across the tropical north of Northern Territory. The Northern Territory as a whole saw the driest March since 2009 with only 54.3 % of normal March rainfall. More information about March weather and climate conditions can be found in the climate summaries for Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Northern Territory.

Near median March streamflows were recorded at 35 of the 74 locations and low streamflows were recorded at 29 locations. High March streamflows were recorded at 10 locations.

Streamflow forecasts for April to June

Near median and low streamflows for the April to June forecast period are more likely at 20 and 11 locations, respectively, of the 38 locations where skill is acceptable. High flows are more likely at 7 locations. The forecast is not issued due to very low skill scores at 36 locations.

While the tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the chance of an El Niño occuring in 2014 has increased. The latest climate model survey by the Bureau shows that the tropical Pacific is likely to warm in the coming months, with most models showing sea surface temperatures reaching El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April.

The chances of exceeding the median rainfall during April to June are 35 to 40% over parts of southern Queensland, the Top End of the Northern Territory, and the western Kimberley in Western Australia. In other words, the chances of below average rainfall are 60 to 65% over these areas. Conversely, the chance of exceeding the median rainfall is greater than 60% over southern and central Western Australia, and southwest South Australia. Over the rest of the country, there is no significant shift in the odds towards either a wetter or drier than normal season.


For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.


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