Summary of skill scores


The RMSEP (Root Mean Squared Error in Probability) skill scores for each site and for each month/season are presented in the graphic below. The graphic shows the typical decrease in skill for seasonal forecasting during the autumn months and the variability of skill between months, sites and catchments.

The following definitions can be used in relation to the hindcast RMSEP skill score:

  • 0 is considered to be a forecast with no skill
  • less than 10 is considered to be a forecast with very low skill
  • 10-20 is considered to be a forecast with low skill
  • 20-40 is considered to be a forecast with moderate skill
  • greater than 40 is considered to be a forecast with high skill

A forecast with zero skill gives no additional information when compared to the historical reference.

Skill Score Summary

Note:
The skills scores in the diagram above are for the three months starting at the start month.


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