Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook Sample

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Outlook for average tropical cyclone season for North West Australia
(issued 18/10/2004)

The Bureau of Meteorology's outlook for the 2004/2005 tropical cyclone season for North West Australia is :

• An average season with around four cyclones expected to form off northwest Australia.

• Likelihood of around two coastal impacts.

• Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.

• The most active period for tropical cyclones is more likely to be during January and February. There is a low to moderate risk of a cyclone forming off the northwest coast before Christmas. The Kimberley or adjacent Eighty-mile Beach is the area most likely to be affected should a cyclone form before Christmas.

This information is based on the prevailing El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Although there are some tropical signals suggesting that an El Niño may be developing, the dominant indicators show that more neutral conditions are persisting. Additionally the majority of climate models predict near neutral conditions continuing throughout the coming cyclone season. The current 3-month mean value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is -6 compared with a value of about zero at the same time last year.
For weekly updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/.

Further enquires to:
Andrew Burton Ph. (08) 9263 2283 e-mail: A.Burton@bom.gov.au
or
Joe Courtney Ph. (08) 9263 2282 e-mail: J.Courtney@bom.gov.au

Severe Weather Section, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth.