Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map

Introduction

The Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map is a graphical product that provides a track of the cyclone showing recent movement, and forecast movement (with uncertainty indicated) 48 hours hence. It also shows the current extent of damaging winds and a graphical representation of the areas affected by current cyclone watch and cyclone warning. This product is accessible on the Bureau's web page and through Weather-by-Fax.

When is a Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map issued?

A Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map is issued in tandem with Tropical Cyclone Advices (watches & warnings). For cyclones further off-shore, a tropical cyclone track map (same format) will also be issued in tandem with Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletins, if it is of interest to Australian Communities in the longer term.

How often is a Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map issued?

The forecast map is issued at a similar frequency to the cyclone advice, although they may not be issued with all advices if warnings are being issued hourly.

What Information is included in the Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map?

Each Tropical Cyclone Threat Map will contain the following information:

• The cyclone name
• Reference to the associated Advice
• A map including the recent track of the cyclone and forecast track up to 48 hours hence.
• The latest position with a graphical representation of the current and forecast extent of gale-force (62 km/h), storm-force (89 km/h) and hurricane-force (117 km/hr) winds.
• A grey zone uncertainty depicting the likely range of movement of the cyclone.
• Graphical representation of the Warning and watch zones
• The intensity category of the cyclone (1 - weak to 5 - strong)
• Some technical information in text format, including uncertainty.
• Some advisory information extracted from the Tropical Cyclone Advice
• The expected issue time for the next map

Who is the target audience of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map?

All land based communities in the threat zone.
Note that separate marine warnings will be issued, and all mariners should refer to these warnings for relevant information. This is particularly important off the East coast, where the area affected by 33 - 41 knot winds is not displayed on the threat map.

Where are Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Maps issued?

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Maps are issued by Regional Offices of the Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane, Darwin or Perth, depending on the location of the cyclone: