THE DYNAMICS AND FORECASTING OF TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS

While there has been much progress in recent years in understanding the large-scale dynamics of the tropical atmosphere on intraseasonal and longer time scales, there has been rather less focus on the morphology and dynamics of tropical weather systems that are of importance in day-to-day weather forecasting, perhaps with the exception of tropical cyclones, but including monsoonal weather. Indeed, skill in forecasting in the tropics has lagged behind that in middle latitudes, and current weather forecasts in the tropics have little credibility with users. Forecasters in tropical regions have few conceptual models at their disposal and there is a notable lack of useful theory that they can call upon. Moreover, numerical weather prediction in the tropics is often of limited value for forecasting weather involving convection, probably because of the paucity of appropriate mesoscale observational data and the limitations of current initialization procedures. The situation will be rectified only with improved theoretical understanding, the consequential development of better forecasting techniques and the transfer to forecasters of both understanding and techniques.

Although there have been some improvements in the situation over the years there seemed an urgent need for a forum in which forecasters can come together with researchers to make more rapid progress on this problem. As a start, a group of forecasters and researchers with a commitment to tropical meteorology met in Darwin, Australia, from Monday 22 - Friday 26 January, 2001, to discuss the current shortcomings in tropical meteorology and ways in which progress can be accelerated, particularly to the advantage of the many developing nations in the tropics. The participation of forecasters was sponsored by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the World Meteorological Organization.

	Concept
	Programme
	Steering Committee
	Participants
	Abstracts
	Papers
	Reports
	For more information: Geoff Garden (Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin) Roger Smith (University of Munich)

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