While there has been much progress in recent years in understanding the large-scale dynamics of the tropical atmosphere on intraseasonal and longer time scales, there has been rather less focus on the morphology and dynamics of tropical weather systems that are of importance in day-to-day weather forecasting, perhaps with the exception of tropical cyclones, but including monsoonal weather.
Forecasters in tropical regions have few conceptual models at their disposal and there is a notable lack of useful theory that they can call upon. Moreover, numerical weather prediction in the tropics is often of limited value for forecasting weather involving convection, probably because of the paucity of appropriate mesoscale observational data. Although there have been some improvements in the situation over the years there seems an urgent need for a forum in which forecasters can come together with researchers to make more rapid progress on this problem, which is important for northern Australia and other nations subject to tropical weather.
Accordingly an international workshop on the subject of tropical weather forecasting has been organised. A number of forecasters from forecast offices responsible for weather forecasts within the tropics have been invited to articulate their problems and a number of leading atmospheric dynamicists to review the state of knowledge relevant to tropical weather forecasting, including the special requirements of numerical weather prediction in the tropics.
The meeting will have a format similar to the WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, with mainly invited talks, review talks and plenty of time for discussion.
However, it will be limited in size and restricted mainly to persons likely to make an active contribution to discussion. The aim is to stimulate future research that is focussed on relevant forecasting problems in tropical regions.
It is planned to prepare a Workshop Proceedings Volume.
The Workshop will be held at the Novotel Atrium Hotel in Darwin, Australia from Monday 22 to Friday 26 January, 2001 and will be sponsored by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the World Meteorological Organization, with the support of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographical Society. Darwin is a small, but modern city with excellent hotel and recreation facilities and is the location of the Bureau of Meteorology Regional Forecast Centre in the Northern Territory of Australia, perhaps one of the best equipped forecast centres in the tropics with its association with the Darwin Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC). January is an interesting time of year for meteorology, being in the Australian monsoon season.
| Programme | PDF Version, Word Version |
| Abstracts | PDF Version |
| 0845 – 0900 | Official Opening (Mr. Jim Arthur, Dr. Mike Manton, Prof. Roger Smith, Prof. Bruce Morton) |
| 0900 – 0945 | Forecaster’s Presentation 1 (Chairperson: Prof. Bruce Morton) Dr. Roger Atkinson, Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory RO Problem areas and research priorities in tropical forecasting: the Australian forecast perspective |
| 0945 – 1015 | Discussion |
| 1015 – 1045 | Coffee Break |
| 1045 – 1130 | Forecaster’s Presentation 2 (Chairperson: Dr. John Molinari) Mr. Frank Wells, National Weather Service, Guam Tropic Topics |
| 1130 – 1200 | Discussion |
| 1200 – 1400 | Lunch |
| 1400 – 1445 | Review Paper 1 (Chairperson: Mr. Geoffrey Garden) Dr. Matthew Wheeler, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne A review of 'synoptic to interseasonal' tropical waves with relevance for forecasting |
| 1445 – 1515 | Discussion |
| 1515 - 1545 | Afternoon Tea |
| 1545 – 1630 | Current weather briefing |
| 1630 – 1700 | Discussion |
| 1700 – 1830 | Icebreaker |
| 0845 – 0930 | Forecaster’s Presentation 3 (Chairperson: Dr. Chris Thorncroft) Mr. Lixion Avila, National Hurricane Center, Miami Forecasting difficulties for the Caribbean basin from events other than tropical cyclones |
| 0930 – 1000 | Discussion |
| 1000 – 1030 | Coffee Break |
| 1030 – 1100 | Forecaster’s Presentations 4 & 5 (Chairperson: Dr. Adam Sobel) Ms. Vive Biukoto, Fiji Meteorological Service Short term forecasting problems associated with tropical weather systems |
| 1100 - 1130 | Dr. Wan Azli Wan Hassan, Malaysian Meteorological Service Forecasting heavy or extreme rain episodes in Malaysia |
| 1130 – 1200 | Discussion |
| 1200 – 1400 | Lunch |
| 1400 – 1445 | Review Paper 2 (Chairperson: Mr. Roger Atkinson) Prof. Dave Raymond, New Mexico Tech., Socorro, USA Forecasting vertical motion in the tropics |
| 1445 – 1515 | Discussion |
| 1515 - 1545 | Afternoon Tea |
| 1545 – 1630 | Current weather briefing |
| 1630 – 1700 | Discussion |
| 2000 – 2130 | First Meeting of Working Groups |
| 0845 – 0930 | Forecaster’s Presentation 6 (Chairperson: Dr. Mark Kersemakers) Dr. Noel Davidson, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne Operational Numerical Weather Prediction in the Tropics: Status, Problems, and Prospects |
| 0930 – 1000 | Discussion |
| 1000 – 1030 | Coffee Break |
| 1030 – 1100 | Forecaster’s Presentations 7 & 8 (Chairperson: Dr. Joe Zehnder) Mr. Ellaquim A. Adug, Philippines Meteorological Service (PAGASA), Manila Short term forecasting problems associated with tropical weather systems |
| 1100 - 1130 | Eng. Le Thanh Hai, Vietnamese HydroMeteorological Service, Hanoi Using numerical weather prediction products for short-range operational weather forecasts |
| 1130 – 1200 | Discussion |
| 1200 – 1400 | Lunch |
| 1400 – 1430 | Forecaster’s Presentations 9 (Chairperson: Dr. Tom Keenan) Ms. Lori Chappel, Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory RO Assessing severe thunderstorm potential days and storm types in the tropics |
| 1430 – 1515 | Review Paper 3 Dr. Brian Mapes, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO, USA. Parcels, processes, and buoyancy for convection forecasting |
| 1515 – 1545 | Discussion |
| 1545 – 1615 | Afternoon Tea |
| 1615 – 1700 | Current weather briefing |
| 1700 – 1730 | Discussion |
| 0845 – 0930 | Forecaster’s Presentation 10 (Chairperson: Dr. Michael Reeder) Mr. Jeff Callaghan, Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland RO Severe tropical lows – warning strategy, the role of convection and thermal structure |
| 0930 – 1000 | Discussion |
| 1000 – 1030 | Coffee Break |
| 1030 – 1100 | Forecaster’s Presentations 11 & 12 (Chairperson: Dr. Noel Davidson) Mr. Choo Huat Aik, Singapore Meteorological Service. Title to be announced. |
| 1100 - 1130 | Mr. Prawit Jampanya, Thai Meteorological Department, Bangkok. Weather forecasting in Thailand |
| 1130 – 1200 | Discussion |
| 1200 – 1400 | Lunch |
| 1400 – 1430 |
Forecaster’s Presentations 13 (Chairperson: Dr. Brian Mapes) Mr. Mark Kersmakers, Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory RO Forecast aspects of a tropical disturbance affecting the "Top End" of Australia – 12 April 2000 |
| 1430 – 1515 | Review Paper 4 Prof. Kerry Emanuel The predictability of tropical convection |
| 1515 – 1545 | Discussion |
| 1545 – 1615 | Afternoon Tea |
| 1615 – 1700 | Current weather briefing |
| 1700 – 1730 | Discussion |
| 2000 – 2130 | Second Meeting of Working Groups |
| 0845 – 1000 | Working Group/Rapporteurs’ Reports (Chairperson: Prof. Kerry Emanuel) |
| 1000 – 1030 | Coffee Break |
| 1030 – 1145 | Working Group/Rapporteurs’ Reports (Chairperson: Mr. Jim Arthur) |
| 1145 - 1330 | Lunch |
| 1330 – 1530 | Formulation of Recommendations (Chairperson: Prof. Roger Smith) |
| 1530 | End of Meeting |
January is an interesting time of year in Darwin for forecasting challenges, being in the Australian monsoon period. It is proposed to include a current chart discussion each day to stimulate debate on some of the forecasting problems. Darwin RSMC facilities offer the possibility that workshop participants may be able to contribute to the discussion of the situation in their own area.
Each forecaster’s presentation and each review talk should have two rapporteurs made up of one forecaster and one research scientist. The rapporteurs would lead working group discussions and the final reports from each working group would form the basis of a Workshop Report at the end of the meeting.
The idea would be to produce two reports: an extended report, which might be published by the Bureau of Meteorology or by WMO, and shorter summary articles for the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society and The Australian Meteorological and Oceanographical Society Bulletin.