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Summary: The 2009-10 season is expected to be largely influenced by a comparatively weak El Niņo event. Therefore rainfall and flooding should not be as extensive as the past two seasons and a tropical cyclone impact on the east coast is a little less likely than in neutral or La Niņa years. These conditions would favour a late start to the monsoon.
The current El Niņo event is unusual in-so-far as waters to the northeast of Australia remain somewhat warmer than average. These unusual ocean conditions have had a notable impact on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which has remained close to zero. Moreover, the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere which amplifies and maintains El Niņo events has so far failed to eventuate.
Nevertheless, most global climate models predict a continuation of the El Niņo through the summer months. El Niņo events are usually associated with below normal rainfall over much of Queensland and a below average number of tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea. Cyclones are also more likely from late December than earlier in the season.
Early preparation is a key element in disaster risk management. People around the state need to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides, floods and - fires and to have an understanding of the Bureau's warning services.
The official source of information on tropical cyclones is the Bureau's web page at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone. The latest information from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre is also available by dialling 1300 659 212 (for the cost of a local call). Flood, river and rainfall information is regularly updated at www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld. Flood Warnings are also available by dialling 1300 659 219 (for the cost of a local call).
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