Outlook for tropical cyclone season for North West Australia

19 October 2009

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for North West Australia

No room for complacency with El Niño cyclones

People in Western Australia's northwest are being urged to ensure they are ready for the upcoming cyclone season. The Bureau's seasonal outlook indicates a significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact.

"Residents are reminded that coastal communities between Broome and Exmouth face the highest cyclone risk of anywhere in Australia", cautioned Joe Courtney, meteorologist in the WA Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre. Mr Courtney added that "The most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, to understand the warning service, and to be suitably prepared". The call comes as the Bureau of Meteorology and the FESA-State Emergency Service begin a tour of the northwest to promote cyclone and flood awareness and preparation initiatives.

The 2009-10 season seems likely to be influenced by an El Niño event. However, this El Niño is developing in an unusual manner with the indicators from the ocean and atmosphere giving mixed signals. While the warm Pacific Ocean temperatures are typical of an El Niño, atmospheric signals such as the Southern Oscillation Index are more indicative of near-neutral conditions. Nevertheless, most global climate models predict an El Niño event will continue through the summer months.
El Niño events are usually associated with a later start than usual to the cyclone season and a below average number of tropical cyclones forming off the North West Coast.
There were just three cyclones in the previous El Niño event during the 2006/07 season. "One of those was severe cyclone George that crossed the coast near Port Hedland; which demonstrates that it only takes one cyclone to have a significant impact" warned Mr Courtney.

Details of the 2009/2010 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for North West Australia:

• Lower than normal risk of a coastal impact before Christmas.
• Average to below average number of cyclones in waters off the northwest coast (average number is 5).
• Likelihood of around 2 coastal impacts.
• Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.

More information:
Status of El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/.
Tropical cyclone warnings and information: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/
This information available on the internet at: www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/seasonal/

Further enquires to: Severe Weather Section
Ph. (08) 9263 2222; email: sevwx_wa@bom.gov.au
Severe Weather Section, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth.
Information on preparing for cyclones is available from the Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia: http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au/