Outlook for tropical cyclone season for North West Australia

1 February 2010

Updated Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook for North West Australia

More cyclones expected

As we reach the midpoint of the cyclone season people in Western Australia's northwest are being reminded that they need to stay prepared for a cyclone impact. The Bureau's updated seasonal outlook indicates a significant risk of a tropical cyclone coastal impact between now and the end of April.

Joe Courtney, acting Manager of the Severe Weather Section noted that the two cyclones that formed off the WA coast in the first half of the season went on to have a significant impact on the coast: Laurence in the Kimberley and east Pilbara in December and Magda in the Kimberley in January. "Usually at least two cyclones develop off the North West coast during the second half of the season regardless of how many formed earlier in the season, so we now expect about an average number of tropical cyclones for the season overall (average is five)."

In the shorter term the current quiet phase of the monsoon should continue for at least the next week resulting in a low chance of a cyclone impact for early February, but by the end of the month we are likely to be in another active period.

"There has been some heavy rain across the Kimberley so far this season so any further cyclones or lows through the region would present a significant flooding risk. By contrast, rainfall in central and western parts of the Pilbara has been much below average. However, it can take just one cyclone or low to cause flooding rains", Mr. Courtney said.

"It is important that people recheck their cyclone preparations and contact the FESA-State Emergency Service if they have any doubts about their readiness", he added.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the remainder of the season:

• There is a low chance of a tropical cyclone affecting the NW coast during early February.
• Significant risk of a severe cyclone coastal impact during the remainder of the season.
• There is a likelihood of at least two more cyclones in the region before the end of the season.

The season so far (to 1 February 2010)
There have been two tropical cyclones in the Northwest region this season. Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence developed on 13 December and reached category 5 intensity near Kuri Bay on the Kimberly coast before weakening overland east of Derby. Laurence redeveloped off the coast near Broome and again reached category 5 intensity as it crossed the 80 Mile Beach between Port Hedland and Broome on 21 December. Cyclone Magda formed south of Timor and crossed the Kimberley coast at Kuri Bay on 22 January before weakening inland. Further information is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/

More information:
Status of El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/.
Tropical cyclone warnings and information: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/
This information available on the internet at: www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/seasonal/

Further enquires to: Severe Weather Section
Ph. (08) 9263 2222; email: sevwx_wa@bom.gov.au
Severe Weather Section, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth.
Information on preparing for cyclones is available from the Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia: http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au/