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Bushfires

The bushfire threat
Fire weather climatology
Historical events


The bushfire threat

The rate of spread of fires is strongly associated with the weather conditions at the time. In Perth and about the lower west coast the fire risk is greatest from summer through autumn, when the moisture content in vegetation is low. Summer and autumn days of high temperatures, low humidity and strong winds are particularly conducive to the spread of fires. Indeed temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and the curing rate of vegetation can be combined into a fire danger index (FDI) that is the basis for the fire danger rating (Low, Moderate, High, Very High and Extreme) included on forecasts. In Western Australia the FDI used is the Revised Grasslands Fire Behaviour Meter which is based on the CSIRO modified McArthur Mk IV Grassland Meter.

The most susceptible area to bushfires in Perth is the forest areas of the hills suburbs. These parts are also prone to strong easterlies in the morning that can fan existing fires. These easterlies can also be enhanced by topographical variations such as the Helena Valley. Other areas of bushland in Perth are also vulnerable to wildfires and these can also threaten neighbouring residential areas. On one afternoon in January 1989 a wildfire burned 45% (120 ha) of Kings Park.

The fire threat is increased when thunderstorms develop; causing lightning that provides the ignition for storms. This is particularly the case when thunderstorms cause little or no rain, as is sometimes the case on hot days.

 

Fire weather climatology

Tables 1 and 2 show the frequency of the five fire danger ratings by month for Perth Airport (1993-2004) and Bickley (1997-2004). These are based on the highest FDI calculated each day, and assumes a curing rate of 100%. The maximum number of Very High and Extreme days occurs in January. The calculated FDI values are higher than actual values in December because the curing rate early in the season is less than 100%. The annual number of such Very High to Extreme days is considerably higher at Perth Airport (31) than at Bickley (3) because the summer temperatures on the coastal plain away from the coast are higher than in the hills. Frequencies on the coastal plain decrease towards the coast because of the seabreeze effect. Despite the curing rate being 100% in Autumn, the fire danger rate declines because of lower temperatures and lower wind speeds on average.

Table 1. Perth Airport Fire Danger Ratings (1993 - 2004)

Month
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
Extreme
January
0.1
0.2
24.3
4.7
1.6
February
0.0
0.4
21.9
5.2
0.8
March
0.1
0.6
26.5
3.3
0.6
April
0.3
3.8
24.9
1.0
0.1
May
0.1
11.1
19.1
0.6
0.1
June
0.9
12.7
16.1
0.3
0.0
July
0.7
13.5
16.3
0.4
0.1
August
0.1
11.9
18.5
0.5
0.0
September
0.1
8.1
21.0
0.4
0.4
October
0.2
1.5
27.7
1.4
0.1
November
0.3
0.3
26.2
2.3
0.9
December
0.0
0.3
23.8
5.1
1.9
Year
2.8
64.3
266.3
25.3
6.6

Table 2. Bickley Fire Danger Ratings (1997 - 2004)

Month
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
Extreme
January
0.7
2.0
27.8
0.3
0.1
February
0.4
1.3
26.1
0.4
0.0
March
1.4
5.3
23.1
0.4
0.7
April
0.6
14.7
14.6
0.1
0.0
May
3.0
19.6
8.4
0.0
0.0
June
4.9
19.6
5.5
0.0.
0.0
July
5.7
18.8
6.5
0.0
0.0
August
2.5
22.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
September
0.8
19.3
9.7
0.2
0.0
October
2.6
16.2
12.1
0.0
0.2
November
0.0
7.6
22.4
0.0
0.0
December
1.1
2.9
26.3
0.6
0.1
Year
23.8
149.2
189.0
2.0
1.2

Extreme fire weather conditions in the Perth region typically occur with strong easterly or northeasterly winds associated with a strong high to the south of the state and a trough offshore as shown in Figure 1. Easterly winds represent about 60% of extreme fire weather days (events) compared to less than 5% associated with southerly winds. This is in contrast to Geraldton where winds on 40% of extreme events are southerly and at Albany and Esperance where winds on over 75% on extreme events are northerly. About 15% of Perth events occurred in a westerly flow following the passage of a trough. This number increases inland from the west coast where the westerly or northwesterly winds can be strong and gusty while temperatures initially remain high with the trough change. The eastward movement of the trough is shown in the sequential mean sea level pressure charts in Figures 1 and 2.

chart of typical hot day in Perth chart of the day following a hot day in Perth

Figure 1. Mean Sea Level Pressure chart showing a typical day of hazardous fire weather conditions. A high south of the continent directs east to northeasterly winds towards a trough near the west coast. Such days in Perth are typically very hot and dry.

Figure 2. Mean Sea Level Pressure chart representative of the following day. The eastward mobility of the highs to the south helps to move the trough inland of the west coast resulting in significantly cooler conditions about the west coast.

 

Very dangerous fire weather conditions often follow a sequence of hot days and easterly winds that culminate in the deepening of the trough near the coast and movement inland. The presence of a tropical cyclone off the Pilbara coast often helps maintain the trough offshore for longer than is normal. Such conditions occurred in January 1961 when the temperature at Wandering exceeded 40ºC on eight of the ten days from the 15th to the 24th. Strong winds associated with the trough passage on the 24th also coincided with thunderstorms that ignited fires east of the city and a major fire completely engulfed Dwellingup.

Tropical cyclones can cause a major fire threat in the southwest as demonstrated in February 1937 and again in April 1978 (Cyclone Alby). Although tropical cyclones are normally associated with driving rain, destructive winds and storm surges, ones that accelerate into the mid-latitudes off the west coast can cause strong winds without rainfall over land (to the east of its track). The co-location of very strong winds and dry conditions creates a dangerous environment for wildfires to spread rapidly. See Tropical Cyclone Alby case study for more information.

Some significant historical events in the Perth region

On 24 January 1961, a prolonged hot spell culminated in a very hot day and strong, gusty northwesterly winds associated with a trough change. Many fires that had been ignited by lightning in the previous week flared during the day and one fire front burned through Dwellingup, destroying 132 homes and a number of other buildings. Fortunately there were no serious human casualties. The situation was described by The West Australian (24 January, 1981) as follows:

About 8.30 pm on Tuesday January 24, 1961, hundreds of terrified people watched helplessly as fire engulfed and destroyed most of Dwellingup, a timber milling town 100 km south of Perth. A short time before they had hurriedly abandoned their homes with only the clothes they wore. They watched a petrol station blow up, houses and motor vehicles explode into flames seconds after being abandoned and flames jump hundreds of metres ahead of the main front, fanned by 120 km/h winds. Some people jumped into a well to escape the inferno and workers trapped at a forestry mill lay face down on the ground and took turns spraying water on each other ...

Miraculously no one was killed or seriously injured. But about 800 people were left homeless and scores of people were treated for smoke inhalation and eye complaints. When the damage had been tallied up, 132 houses had been destroyed, as well as the hospital, two saw mills, two service stations, three general stores, offices, outbuildings and 74 motor vehicles. The value of the damage was estimated to be about $10 million - $50 million on today's [1981] values.

Smoke from fires burning in the hills near Keysbrook and in the hills near Perth blanketed Perth. Due to the poor visibility, Perth airport was closed to light aircraft and shipping traffic at Fremantle had to be tracked by radar (The West Australian, 24 January, 1961).

On 4 April 1978, pre-existing fires were fanned by gale-force winds as Tropical Cyclone Alby accelerated down the west coast. The Bushfires Board reported 78 fires in the area south of Eneabba to Lake Grace. These burnt over 31,000 ha and had a total perimeter of 470 km. Falling trees killed two people during fire fighting operations.

On 1 December 1979, a large bushfire near Mandurah cut power lines causing a power blackout. Perth lost one-third of its power causing residents to swelter in 37 degree heat. The havoc it caused is described by the Sunday Times (2 December, 1979):

A major power failure plunged Perth and the South West into chaos for several hours yesterday. The blackout, caused by a bushfire near Mandurah, cut both transmission lines between Perth and Bunbury, as most of the State sweltered in near century heat. At one stage, the entire metropolitan area and the South West were blacked out. State Energy Commission (SEC) officials worked for several hours to restore power and boost output from Kwinana and South Fremantle power stations. Late yesterday the two Bunbury transmission lines were still out as a huge bushfire raged out of control 8 km east of Mandurah. SEC engineers took to the air in an attempt to determine the point of the failure. They were flying along the transmission lines from the southern terminal at Cannington to Bunbury. The blackout hit Perth and the South West at about 12.30 pm bringing disruption to thousands of homes, hospitals, emergency services and sporting fixtures. It caused havoc in the racing world as the Ascot races were forced on to emergency power and 37 TAB shops were closed down. The SEC shifted the power load around the metropolitan area in a bid to ease the disruption. It was 3 pm before power was restored to most areas. The SEC's marketing manager, Mr Don Saunders, said the two transmission lines from Bunbury were cut suddenly at 12.30 pm. At that point Perth lost a third of its power. The total load for Perth is 600 megawatts and we lost 200 megawatts, he said.

On 8 January 1997, bush fires at Wooroloo and Wundowie destroyed 16 homes and part of the Wooroloo Prison Farm. Other losses including sheds, fencing, livestock, vehicles and stored fodder contributed to a total well in excess of $12 million (Bushfires Board of Western Australia, 1997).

In early February 2001, a bushfire burnt through 2000 ha of scrub and damaged six homes in Perth's northern suburbs. Less than two weeks later this was followed by a bushfire which burnt through 1000 ha of scrub in Perth's northeastern suburbs and threatened several homes and the Perth International Telecommunications Centre (The West Australian, 15 February, 2001).

More recently, in January 2005 a fire that was deliberately lit burnt over 27,000 hectares of bush in the Pickering Brook area of the Perth hills and took nine days to bring under control. On several days smoke engulfed the city reducing visibility and causing a health hazard.


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