Description of the Forecasting System
-------------------------------------

The ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) description is widely documented in the literature. The
operational configuration employs persisted SST anomalies as boundary conditions. The model
set-up and other technical aspect have been presented in various workshop and forums. A brief
description can be found at the SAWS web (http://www.weathersa.co.za/LONGTERM/meth_seas.html).
In addition, the following publications are also available:
. Landman, W. A., M.-J. Kgatuke, M. Mbedzi, A. Beraki, A. Bartman & du Piesanie A. 2008: Performance
  comparison of some dynamical and empirical downscaling methods for South Africa from a seasonal
  climate modelling perspective. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.1766.
. Landman, W. A., Engelbrecht, F., Beraki, A., Engelbrecht, C., Mbedzi, M. & Gill, T. &
  Ntsangwane, L., 2008: Model output statistics applied to multi-model ensemble long-range forecasts
  over South Africa, Water Research Commission Report. In press.

Generally, the forecasting system can briefly be explained as:
. Numerical system;
. Deterministic forecast (forecast maps based on ensemble mean);
. Involves six ensemble members;
. Persisted SST as lower boundary condition (obtained from optimum interpolation v-2);
. Verification done for rainfall and surface temperatures;
. Regions assessed include tropics, extra-tropics for level 1 and the glob for level 2;
. Aessmentis perforemed for three lead times (i.e., 1, 2 and 3);
. verficaion period covers from 1983 to 2001;
. Each hindcast incialized at about the 2nd week of each month and runs for 5 consicative months starting form the following month; 
. Uses Merged Analysis of Precipitation Climate Prediction Center (CMAP-CPC) for rainfall and ERA-40 for surface air temperature verifying datasets;
. Employs standard resolution;