System details: Met Office, UK Numerical, Empriical or Hybrid Numerical Deterministic or Probabilistic Probabilistic Model type and resolution Coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM - similar to the HadCM3 climate version of the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a number of enhancements for seasonal forecasting purposes. For details of HadCM3 see Gordon et al, Climate Dynamics (2000) and Pope et al, Climate Dynamics (2000) Atmospheric component: 19 vertical levels; horizontal resolution of 3.75° east-west and 2.5° north-south. Oceanic component: 40 vertical levels; horizontal resolution of 1.25° east-west and 0.3° north-south near the equator, increasing to 1.25° poleward of the mid-latitudes. Ensemble size 41 members for forecasts 15 members for hindcasts Parameters assessed 2m temperature and precipitation Regions Global Lead times 1,2,3-months Period of verification 3-month rolling seasons corresponding to months 2-4, 3-5, 4-6 Number of hindcasts and the dates/years of these hindcasts 16 years (1987-2002) Verification data sets 2m temperature: ERA40 Reanalysis data set Precipitation : GPCP (NASA) observations dataset. Further details can be found at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/glosea.html References Gordon,C., Cooper,C., Senior,C.A., Banks,H., Gregory,J.M., Johns,T.C., Mitchell,J.F.B. and Wood,R.A. (2000). The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics, 16, 147-168. Pope,V.D., Gallani,M.L., Rowntree,P.R. and Stratton,R.A. (2000). The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model:HadAM3. Climate Dynamics, 16, 123-146.