Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for February to April shows:

• The rainfall forecast is weak over much of Australia, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above, below or near-average rainfall for the three-month period. Rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of Australia's south and west.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to very likely to be above average across Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely be above average across much of Australia.

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Rainfall—Summary

Weak signal for much of the country; drier February to April for parts of Australia's south and west

February to April

• For much of meaning there are a range of possible outcomes, including above, below or near-average rainfall.
• February to April falls within the wet season for northern Australia when high-impact rainfall events regularly occur.
• Rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 70% chance) for parts of south-east Australia, south-west and northern Western Australia, and the far north-west of the Northern Territory. For the areas in the south-east, this forecast signal is more prominent later in the outlook period.
• This rainfall forecast from ACCESS-S is generally consistent with forecasts from other international models, which show a mixed or weak forecast for much of Australia.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia

February to April

• Maximum temperatures are likely to very likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across Australia.
• Some areas have an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance), including Tasmania, most of New South Wales, northern Victoria and southern Queensland, and parts of western and far northern Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average (more than 80% chance) across most of Australia, with lower chances (55 to 80% chance) across central southern Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) across much of Australia, with the strongest chances in the tropical north and parts of the east (over 70% chance).
• These temperature forecasts from ACCESS-S are generally consistent with most international models, although ACCESS-S forecasts higher chances of warmer temperatures, especially over the northern interior of Australia.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of February to April days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Since July 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region have been in the top three warmest on record for each respective month. Similarly, global SSTs remain substantially above average, with December 2025 the fourth warmest on record.
• SSTs for the week ending 11 January 2026 show warmer than average waters off much of western and north-eastern Australia. Cooler than average waters remain in parts of the Tasman Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria, but these areas have generally warmed compared to last week.
• Forecasts for February to April show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely across much of the Australian region, with notable warming predicted in the Tasman Sea. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• A weak La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific. The Bureau's model predicts that temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to remain at La Niña levels until late summer before returning to neutral. This timing aligns with most international models assessed.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD is typically inactive from December to April.