Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for May to July shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of eastern and south-west Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for much of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Below average May to July rainfall likely for areas of eastern and south-west Australia

May to July

• Rainfall for the 3-month period from May to July is likely to be below average (60% to more than 80% chance) for much of eastern and south-west Australia.
• For most other areas, including much of the New South Wales coast, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ (40% to 50% chance) for parts of the Murray Darling Basin and north-eastern Tasmania.
• May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north typically receives very little rainfall. Over these areas, average monthly rainfall totals for May, June and July are usually less than 5 mm.

¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the driest 20% of May to July records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights across much of Australia

May to July

• Maximum temperatures over May to July are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• For parts of northern inland Australia, there is no clear signal for either warmer or cooler than average maximum temperatures.
• Most of the southern half of Australia has an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² (over 50% chance), with the highest chances (over 80% chance) across eastern New South Wales and neighbouring border regions, north-east Tasmania, and south-west Western Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 50% chance) for much of Western Australia and south-east Australia, as well as the New South Wales coast and the far south-east of Queensland.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of May to July days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• The SST analysis for the week ending 5 April 2026 shows cooler than average waters (up to 2 °C below average) to the north and west of Australia, in part due to the passage of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle in late March. Warmer than average waters (up to 2 °C above average) are present in most of the remaining Australian region, especially to the south-east of Australia.
• Forecasts for May to July indicate warmer-than-average SSTs are likely off most of the southern coast of Australia, reaching up to 2 °C warmer than average in the Tasman Sea and to the south-west of Australia. 
• The 2025–26 La Niña has ended. Collectively, oceanic and atmospheric indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reflect an ENSO-neutral state.
• All models, including the Bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming in the coming months. Neutral ENSO conditions are expected to persist until at least late autumn, with all models indicating warming to levels consistent with El Niño by the end of winter.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD has remained neutral despite a period of elevated IOD index values from late January to early March.  Most model forecasts indicate it is likely to remain neutral until at least the end of autumn 2026.