Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for November to January shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the east and below average for parts of the north and west.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia except in parts of eastern New South Wales.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.

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Rainfall—Summary

Rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the east and below average for parts of the north and west

November to January

• Rainfall is likely to be above average (60 to 80% chance) for northern Cape York Peninsula, south-eastern Queensland and much of inland New South Wales.
• Rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 70% chance) for much of western and northern Western Australia, and central parts of the Northern Territory.
• Elsewhere, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• From October to December, northern Australia typically experiences increasing storms and showers as the wet season advances. Tropical Australian rainfall typically peaks in the January to March period.
• The chances of above average rainfall are highest during November, with above average rainfall being likely for far northern Australia, and much of Queensland, inland New South Wales and north-east South Australia.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia

November to January

• Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• For parts of coastal New South Wales, maximum temperatures have around an equal likelihood of being above or below the average.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) in central Victoria, Tasmania, and northern Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average (over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) across northern and eastern Australia, with the strongest chances across northern Australia (60% to over 80% chance).

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of November to January days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Since July 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month. Similarly, global SSTs remain substantially above average, with September 2025 the third warmest on record.
• SSTs for the week ending 26 October 2025 were warmer than average across much of the Australian region, particularly along the east coast. Waters of near-average temperature surround Victoria and Tasmania.
• Forecasts for November to January show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely around most of Australia, especially to the south-east. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. While there are signs of possible La Niña development in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, these signals have not yet been sustained at a sufficient strength or duration to meet Bureau criteria for an active event. The Bureau's model currently predicts that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to just meet La Niña levels during November and December, before returning to neutral. This timing aligns with most international models assessed, although they generally show slightly more cooling, compared to the Bureau's model.
• A negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway. The Bureau's model predicts the negative IOD event to continue throughout spring, with a return to neutral in early summer, consistent with most international models.