Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for September to November shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of the south and east and above average across much of the western half of Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average south of the tropics.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Below average spring rainfall across parts of the south and east; above average in the west

September to November

• Spring rainfall is likely to be below average (60% to greater than 80% chance) for the far south-west of Western Australia, south-eastern Australia including Tasmania, and parts of eastern and northern Queensland.
• Above average rainfall is likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) over most of Western Australia extending into the Northern Territory, and western parts of South Australia and Queensland. During this outlook period, northern Australia transitions from the dry to the wet season, bringing increased humidity, storms, and showers.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ (50 to 80% chance) across much of northern and central parts of Western Australia extending into parts of the western Northern Territory. Select your location on the map for more localised information.
• The dry signal is strongest early in the season, extending across much of Australia in September, before the wet signal emerges from October. South-western Western Australia, south-eastern Queensland and northern NSW reflect this seasonal shift in the forecast, while southern Victoria and Tasmania maintain the drier than average forecast throughout the season.
• The ACCESS-S rainfall forecast is consistent with international guidance, although there is some variation between models in the likelihood of above- and below-average rainfall.

¹Unusually low/high rainfall is that in the driest/wettest 20% of September to November records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Above average temperatures likely across much of Australia during spring

September to November

• Spring maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia except in parts of the tropical north.
• Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) across areas of north-eastern Queensland and the northern Kimberley.
• There is an increased likelihood (over 60% chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures² across the southern two-thirds of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80%) over most of south-western and south-eastern Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Australia except in some parts of the north.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 60% chance) across much of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80%) across most of the southern two-thirds of Australia.
• The ACCESS-S forecast for temperatures is broadly consistent with international model guidance, although some models forecast higher chances of below average temperatures over the Top End and Cape York Peninsula.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of September to November days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• A strong El Niño is now well established and continues to strengthen.
• All models, including the bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming through the southern hemisphere spring, with El Niño likely peaking in late spring or summer as a very strong event.
• A strong El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's climate; ENSO is only one of many factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The IOD index exceeded positive IOD thresholds in late July, however, the index has been neutral in the last two weeks. Despite this, models suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop during the southern hemisphere winter and persist into spring.
• The sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the week ending 23 August 2026 shows waters are warmer than average around much of Australia, with temperatures closer to average in the north-west and north-east. Waters are especially warm along the New South Wales and eastern Tasmanian coasts, and in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
• Most of the Australian region is forecast to warm over the coming months, particularly to Australia's west. Warmer waters can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy that can fuel storms and rain systems, increasing potential for high intensity rainfall.
• Global SSTs have been well above average, with July 2026 global SSTs 0.57 °C above the 1991–2020 average, making it the warmest July on record (since 1900).