Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for December to February shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the east and below average for parts of the west.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia except in parts of eastern New South Wales.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.

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Rainfall—Summary

Rainfall is likely to be above average in the east and below average for parts of the west

December to February

• Rainfall is likely to be above average (60 to 80% chance) for areas of north-east and central Queensland and parts of coastal and inland New South Wales.
• Rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) for much of Western Australia and the western half of the Northern Territory.
• Elsewhere, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• This rainfall forecast from ACCESS-S is generally consistent with forecasts from most international models although ACCESS-S predicts a drier signal in the west than most other models.
• During November and December, northern Australia typically experiences increasing storms and showers as the wet season advances. Tropical Australian rainfall typically peaks in the January to March period.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia

December to February

• Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• For much of coastal New South Wales, maximum temperatures have around an equal likelihood of being above or below the average.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) across much of north-west and western Australia, and Tasmania.
• Minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average (over 80% chance) across much of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) across northern and far southern Australia, with the strongest chances in the tropical far north (over 80% chance).
• These temperature forecasts from ACCESS-S are generally consistent with most international models, although ACCESS-S forecasts a stronger warmer signal than other models.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of December to February days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Since July 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month. Similarly, global SSTs remain substantially above average, with October 2025 the third warmest on record.
• SSTs for the week ending 9 November 2025 were warmer than average across much of the Australian region particularly off the east coast and to Australia's north, with significant warming in the Coral and Arafura seas and Gulf of Carpentaria in recent weeks.
• Forecasts for December to February show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely around most of Australia, especially to the south-east. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral but there are signs La Niña may be developing. Atmospheric and oceanic indicators have shown some signs of La Niña development since at least mid-to-late September.
• The Bureau's model currently predicts that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to just meet La Niña levels till at least January, before returning to neutral in mid-to-late summer. This timing aligns with most international models assessed.
• A negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway. The Bureau's model predicts the negative IOD event to continue throughout November, with a return to neutral in December, consistent with most international models.