Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for August to October shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average across the south-west, east and parts of the north and above average for the north-west.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average south of the tropics.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Below average August to October rainfall likely across the south-west and east; above average likely in the north-west

August to October

• August to October rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) for most of the South West Land Division of Western Australia, most of south-east Australia excluding south-west Tasmania, parts of eastern Australia and parts of the north including the Top End of the Northern Territory.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ (40 to 60% chance) for parts of far south-east and south-west mainland Australia and south-east Queensland.
• Above average rainfall is likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) over parts of north-west Australia extending into the interior. The likelihood is highest towards the end of the season, when rainfall over northern Australia is transitioning from the dry to the wet season. During August and September, most of the tropical north, except for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula, typically receives very little rainfall. Therefore, only small amounts of rainfall, often less than 5 to 10 mm, can be enough to exceed monthly averages.
• There is also an increased chance of above average rainfall over the eastern coastal fringe of Cape York Peninsula, with the strongest chances earlier in the season.
• The ACCESS-S forecast for below average rainfall across the south-west, east and parts of the north is consistent with most international models. ACCESS-S has the strongest shift to above average rainfall over the north-west; this is broadly consistent with most international models, but there remains a significant spread in the rainfall outcomes.

 ¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the driest 20% of August to October records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Above average temperatures across much of Australia

August to October

• August to October maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia south of the tropics.
• Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average (60 to 70% chance) across northern areas of Queensland and the north-eastern Northern Territory.
• There is an increased chance (over 60% chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures² across much of the south-east and south-west of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80%) for much of south-east Australia extending into far south-eastern Queensland and western parts of Western Australia.

• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Australia except in some parts of the north.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 60% chance) across much of the southern two-thirds of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80% chance) across most of Western Australia, western and southern South Australia, and much of south-east Australia extending to south-eastern Queensland.
• The temperature outlook from ACCESS-S is consistent with most international models. Some international models forecast higher chances of below average temperatures across northern Australia.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of August to October days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• El Niño is underway. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific are above El Niño thresholds, and atmospheric indicators are consistent with an established event. Ocean-atmospheric coupling (when the ocean and atmosphere act to reinforce the El Niño state) is likely to sustain El Niño through until at least summer.
• All models, including the Bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming into the southern hemisphere spring. Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Niño event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific. A strong El Niño signal in the Niño3.4 region does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's climate; ENSO is only one of many factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Models suggest a positive IOD event is likely to develop over the southern hemisphere winter and persist into spring. However, there is large variation in the timing and strength of this potential event, with neutral IOD conditions also remaining a possible outcome.
• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is trending back to neutral after a prolonged positive phase since late May. Long-term NOAA data shows the June monthly average was the second-highest on record for June and the fourth-highest for any month (since 1979).
• The SST analysis for the week ending 12 July 2026 shows waters are average to above average around most of Australia. Waters are especially warm along the New South Wales and eastern Tasmania coasts (peaking at around 2 to 3 °C above average). This general SST pattern is forecast to continue over the coming months.
• Globally SSTs are exceptionally warm, with June 2026 the warmest June on record for globally averaged ocean temperatures since 1900.